AUDUSD slides to fresh October low as bears maintain control

Bears have consistently sold against retracement levels.

Last week, the AUDUSD rally halted near 0.7065, the 50% retracement of the decline from the September 9 high. Remaining below that mark kept sellers engaged.

On Monday, the pair reached its weekly high while testing the 100-hour and 100-day moving averages, both around 0.7030. The 38.2% retracement of the same move was just lower at 0.7025.

The currency slipped under those averages and touched 0.6954 on Wednesday before bouncing as US equities rallied and risk appetite returned after the US elections. That recovery carried the pair back toward0.7025, where sellers leaned on the broken 38.2% retracement earlier today.

The equity sell-off pushed AUDUSD to a fresh trough.

Thursday's US stock decline dragged AUDUSD lower. It fell through the 200-hour moving average (0.70159), the 100-hour moving average (0.7003), and the 0.6989–0.6994 swing zone. Selling accelerated as stock indexes deepened losses. AUDUSD broke Wednesday's low of 0.6954 and dropped to0.6949, the weakest since October 19.

What next?

The crucial gauge for buyers and sellers is the 0.6970–0.6977 band. That zone corresponds to the 38.2% to 50% retracement of the North American session's decline from 0.7006. If buyers cannot reclaim above that area, the downside path remains preferred, with next support at 0.6932–0.6936. Numerous prior swing lows and highs cluster there, so monitor the price response on a test.

Should buyers push through 0.6977 and hold, the bear's grip weakens. That would bring the previously breached 0.6989–0.6994 swing region back into focus. To extend any rebound, bulls must recapture that zone, with the 100-hour moving average at0.7003 as the next obstacle.

Trading lesson: Align the retracement with the specific move being traded.

This set up involves two distinct 38.2% retracements. The first, at 0.7025, tracks the broader decline from the September9 peak and clarifies where sellers emerged earlier. The second, near 0.6970, reflects the much shorter drop from0.7006 and provides a nearer reference to judge the strength of the next bounce.

What portion of the decline can buyers reclaim? If a rally stalls near0.6970, sellers continue to cap the rebound. If bulls climb above the 50% midpoint near0.6977 and defend it, they've recovered over half of the session's sell-off. That gives sellers cause to reconsider near-term risk. The next challenge is whether buyers can flip the prior floor at0.6989–0.6994 back into support.