AUDUSD stalls at 100-day moving average as sellers step in

Since touching 0.6894 last Thursday — the weakest print since early July — the AUDUSD has climbed steadily. Small pullbacks have appeared during that advance, yet demand has kept carrying the pair up. Today, the Australian dollar is the strongest among the major currencies against the greenback.

That climb has now run into a significant technical barrier, though.

The pair stretched to its 100-day moving average at 0.70332 and made a session peak of 0.7036, only to encounter selling at that level.

The rally stalled at that mark.

From there, the pair has rotated down to 0.70185, moving under the 38.2% retracement of the drop from September's high at 0.7025 and below the lower edge of a swing area at 0.7020. The door is now open for sellers, but they need to build on the move.

For traders who suspect a high is already in place, the downside roadmap is simple:

1. Remain beneath the 100-day moving average at 0.70332. Doing so would preserve the rejection and offer sellers a reference for defining risk.

2. Generate downside momentum under 0.7025–0.7020. The breakdown has already happened, and sellers now need to hold the pair below that region while pressing lower.

3. Get below last week's high at 0.70125. Returning beneath that former breakout level would further damage the bulls' argument.

If sellers manage all three, the next downside objective is the 0.6989–0.6994 swing area, with the 100- and 200-hour moving averages waiting below.

Conversely, if buyers can get back above the 100-day moving average at 0.70332 and then remain there, they would be positioned to attack the 200-day moving average at 0.7047. Further up, the 50% midpoint of the decline from the September high stands at 0.70654.

The lesson here is that reaching resistance and confirming a reversal are two separate steps. The 100-day moving average has pulled in sellers, but the rejection on its own does not create a durable high. Sellers have to show follow-through under the nearby retracement and swing levels. Without such progress, the move could remain a correction inside the rebound from last week's low.