Benjamin Cowen Admits His Bearish Bitcoin Call Failed as Price Tops $85K

On Monday, Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, conceded that his bearish outlook on Bitcoin had been wrong after the digital asset climbed above $85,000 and forced short sellers to cover.

The shift signals a major change for a prominent bearish commentator in the current market cycle.

A Public Reversal Rooted in Cycle Analysis

Cycle analysis predicts Bitcoin's path by studying patterns from past four-year market cycles. For several months, Cowen relied on this method, maintaining that historical data suggested further declines before a sustained upturn.

I was wrong

Not going to make excuses

I deserve to be dunked on

— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) September 21, 2026

On September 8, Cowen put a 65% chance that the cycle low for Bitcoin was still ahead, and only a 35% chance the bottom had already occurred. He frequently pointed out the realized price around $53,000 as a level tested or breached in prior bear markets.

A July memo from Cowen focused on a bottom in the fourth quarter, probably in October, repeating patterns seen in midterm years such as 2014, 2018, and 2022. Certain situations even considered a drop to $44,000.

Even after Bitcoin recovered to the mid-$70,000 range, Cowen insisted it was premature to call the end of the bear market. He referenced past declines following golden crosses and cautioned that a lower high, like in 2014 and 2015, was still a possibility.

In a September 20 video update, Cowen acknowledged that the rally had persisted beyond his expectations. Increases in yields, energy costs, and a stronger dollar did not apply the downward pressure he had forecast.

What Does Bitcoin Above $85,000 Mean?

The market responded swiftly and decisively. Bitcoin's surge above $85,000 wiped out over $831 million in short positions in a single day. Long position liquidations reached about $130 million in the same period, per CoinGlass data.

That disparity indicates how much traders had bet on a lower price that did not materialize. Anyone following the bearish strategy suffered a sizable and quick loss.

Cowen reacted with remarkable openness, stating he was wrong, would not make excuses, and welcomed the criticism. Michaël van de Poppe described him as one of the rare consistently honest bears, remarking that everyone makes mistakes eventually. Michael Saylor replied with just two words: welcome ₿ack.

This event holds a wider lesson for cryptocurrency investors. Cycle models are probabilistic instruments, not certainties, and markets can overturn even strong historical parallels.

With Bitcoin staying above $85,000, the focus moves to whether the surge develops into a lasting bull market. Remaining midterm-year dangers could reappear, but the price has already ruled out a deeper fourth-quarter trough.