Bitcoin Daily Chart Signals Golden Cross, but Weekly Data Tempers Hopes

Bitcoin (BTC) posted its strongest August performance since 2017, but September has brought fresh volatility after the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and robust employment data weighed on risk assets.

Nevertheless, the daily chart has produced what many see as a bullish technical pattern: a golden cross that crypto bulls had anticipated for nearly a year. The development has encouraged analysts to suggest the bear market could be drawing to a close.

However, doubts remain over whether this signal alone can confirm a durable reversal.

Bitcoin's recent price action was driven by Fed expectations.

Aug 28 to 29: Warsh's Jackson Hole speech was read as hawkish, and September hike odds rose above 60%. BTC fell from 81K to 77K.

Aug 30 to Sep 2: Government bond yields rose across major markets, raising the… pic.twitter.com/HJtRAIrrEu

— BloFin Research (@BloFin_Academy) September 9, 2026

Analysts at BloFin point out this is the first such crossover since the death cross in November 2025. Historically, similar formations have often preceded substantial bitcoin rallies. Even so, the analysts argue that essential confirmation remains absent.

Bitcoin’s Golden Cross Comes With a Weekly Asterisk

A golden cross is defined as the point where a short-term moving average rises above a longer-term counterpart. Traders interpret this as a possible signal that momentum is shifting upward.

Bitcoin's last golden cross occurred in May 2025, after which the asset climbed more than 16% to reach a new all-time high in October.

BloFin's method of confirmation relies on the weekly chart rather than the daily one. The research desk uses the 200-week moving average (200W MA) to detect long-term bottom formations and treats the 50-week moving average (50W MA) as a more robust indicator of a genuine trend change.

Currently, bitcoin trades above its 200W MA but below its 50W MA. It has satisfied the first requirement but not the second.

Bitcoin’s classic daily Golden Cross has formed, the 50-day SMA has crossed above the 200-day SMA.

This is the first such crossover since the Death Cross in November 2025.

The same setup usually preceded significant BTC rallies in Bitcoin's history.

It adds another signal that… pic.twitter.com/bgd9PuEBHQ

— BloFin Research (@BloFin_Academy) September 9, 2026

Why the 200-Week Moving Average Matters For Bitcoin Price Direction

Bitcoin has historically spent most of its time above the 200W MA, with cycle bottom prices typically forming near that level. That pattern held in 2015 and 2018, and bitcoin briefly revisited that area during the March 2020 crash.

The 2022 cycle broke from that historical norm. Bitcoin dropped below the 200W MA and remained there while the market processed a series of major deleveraging events. The FTX collapse added further downward pressure later that year.

Bitcoin established its cycle low beneath the indicator, then recovered and climbed back above it during the subsequent upturn.

BloFin notes that the 200W MA has never recorded a weekly decline. Four years of sustained long-term appreciation have kept the average rising.

Bitcoin’s 200W MA Differs From Stocks and Gold

That persistent upward trend is not typical of all long-term moving averages. BloFin Research observed that the S&P 500’s 200-week MA lost momentum during extended periods of weak returns.

The index stagnated for stretches of the 1960s and 1970s. The dot-com crash and the 2008 crisis then caused a prolonged period of weakness from 2000 to 2012.

Gold followed a comparable trajectory. After the metal peaked in 2011, its 200W MA flattened and eventually turned downward during the multi-year decline that ensued.

Trading above the 200W MA still does not settle the question of whether the bear market is finished. Bitcoin can linger near that level for months before a sustained recovery emerges, as it did throughout 2022 and 2023.

The 50-Week Bullish Signal Bitcoin Has Yet To Reclaim

Bitcoin's historical cycles give traders an additional reason to focus on the 50W MA. That level has consistently distinguished major recoveries from temporary bounces.

Bitcoin lost the 50W MA during the downturns of 2014, 2018, late 2021, and late 2025.

The reverse happened during cycle recoveries. Bitcoin reclaimed the 50W MA in 2015, 2019, and 2023, and each time a longer-term uptrend followed.

A golden cross may indicate improving momentum on the daily chart. Reclaiming the 50W MA would extend that improvement to the weekly trend that BloFin uses to identify cycle shifts.

The first step would be a weekly close above that level. Holding it would demonstrate that resistance has turned into support.

BloFin highlights a trade-off in waiting for that confirmation. By the time bitcoin regains the 50W MA, the price may already be far above its cycle low.

Traders who hold out for the signal may lose part of the initial rally. What they gain is stronger proof that the market has moved beyond its previous bear-market structure.