Bitcoin Defies September Slump, Faces Demand Test in October

Bitcoin (BTC) ended September with a 6.33% increase, breaking its historical trend of losses for that month. Yet the buying momentum that drove the rally has cooled as October gets underway.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows stopped after nine consecutive days on Wednesday. At the same time, long-term holders increased their selling, and a substantial sell order cluster sits just above the current market price.

September Defied Its Historical Pattern

Since 2013, September has brought Bitcoin an average decline of 2.41%, based on Coinglass data. However, the month has ended higher for the last four years, from 2023 through 2026.

Bitcoin also outperformed traditional assets during this period. Santiment observed that gold decreased by more than 6% in September, while the S&P 500 experienced a slight dip.

CryptoQuant views the recent gains as the beginning of a new bull phase. It stated that last week's close above the 365-day moving average confirmed this shift. Its Bull Score Index currently stands at 90 out of 100.

Historical October performance supports this outlook. Bitcoin has risen in 10 of the last 13 Octobers, with a median gain of 12.73%. Whether that trend continues depends on sustained buying, and recent flow data indicates a decline in buyers.

ETF Demand Faded Before September Ended

US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $998.95 million on September 21, according to SoSoValue. This represented the largest single-day inflow in nearly a year.

Inflows declined in the following sessions, dropping to $31.07 million by September 28. On September 30, the funds recorded $148.69 million in net outflows, with none of the 12 ETFs seeing any inflow.

The slowdown came days after crypto investment products posted their largest weekly inflows of 2026.

The weakening ETF flows reflect a broader reduction in demand. CryptoQuant estimates that apparent spot demand decreased by 170,000 BTC over 30 days. Additionally, futures demand growth slowed from 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC.

Trading volume has remained subdued as well. Glassnode places combined spot and ETF volume near $6.4 billion per day, at the low end of its post-launch range.

Long-Term Holders Began Taking Profits

As new demand cooled, existing holders sold into the price strength. Holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on September 22, the largest single-day figure of 2026, according to CryptoQuant data.

Long-term holders—those who have kept their coins for more than 155 days—increased their participation. Glassnode found that their share of all realized profit rose from 34% to 55% in the week ending September 29.

CryptoQuant also noted that traders' unrealized profit margin reached 33%, the highest since December 2024.

“Historically, stretched margins have preceded selling and downward price pressure,” the report said.

Nonetheless, Glassnode noted that overall profit-taking remains far below the levels observed at the 2024 and 2025 peaks.

A Sell Wall at $85,000 Poses Bitcoin's First October Challenge

BTC was trading at $84,198 at press time, up 0.9% over the past 24 hours. Just above that level, Glassnode monitors a sell order cluster between $85,000 and $85,500 on Binance. This wall emerged on September 24 and has since grown threefold in size.

On the downside, CryptoQuant identifies first support at the 365-day moving average near $80,000. Below that lies Glassnode's True Market Mean at $77,200, an estimate of the average price paid by active investors.

For Glassnode, a confirmed breakout requires ETF inflows to resume and volume to increase as the price clears the sell wall.