Silver retreats to $63 support as real yields rise on oil and strong PMIs

Fundamental overview

Recently, silver gained support from a drop in oil prices as expectations grew for a de-escalation and a quicker resolution to the conflict. Lower energy costs eased inflation fears and reduced the likelihood of more aggressive monetary tightening, creating a favorable backdrop for the precious metal.

But those hopes dimmed following the UN General Assembly, where Trump stated that the US would strike a deal with Iran after the November elections. His comments dampened optimism for a near-term resolution and contributed to a renewed rise in oil prices.

Risk appetite then worsened, adding to the pressure on silver after the US flash PMIs indicated much faster growth than anticipated. The figures prompted another hawkish repricing, driving real yields up and weighing on the precious metal.

Attention will stay on rate expectations and Middle East developments. Should markets perceive a potential early end to the conflict or a surprise breakthrough in US-Iran talks, oil prices could resume falling, sparking a dovish repricing and supporting silver.

On the other hand, if the situation remains unresolved or escalates further, crude oil is likely to keep climbing. That would reinforce expectations for tighter policy and higher real yields, adding headwinds for silver.

Silver technical analysis – daily timeframe

Silver has once again pulled back to the key 63.00 support. Buyers are expected to step in around that level, with a defined risk below it, aiming for a rally to 71.50. Sellers, meanwhile, will look for a break below support to target a drop to 55.00.

Silver technical analysis – 4-hour timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, there is a minor resistance near 65.00. If the price rebounds and retreats to that resistance, sellers are expected to step in with a defined risk above it, aiming for a break below support. Buyers will want to see a break higher to increase bullish positions targeting 71.50 next, with 68.00 as an initial target.

Silver technical analysis – 1-hour timeframe

On the 1-hour chart, a minor downward trendline defines the bearish momentum. Sellers are expected to lean on that trendline with a defined risk above it to push into new lows. Buyers will look for a break higher to increase bullish bets toward the 65.00 resistance next.

Upcoming catalysts

Today's catalysts include the Trump-Xi meeting and US jobless claims data, but focus will remain on US-Iran developments.