Bitcoin Dips Below $85,000 as On-Chain Data Highlights $81,000 Support

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped under $85,000 this week, just days after it closed above that level for the first time on a daily basis. According to Glassnode, the decline came on low trading volume, with fresh capital entering slowly.

Glassnode now identifies $81,000 as the next key level, where the largest buy orders reside on Binance, and says it is the price point to watch.

Why Does Bitcoin Price Keep Fading After US Data?

Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that most officials considered another rate hike this year likely.

Bitcoin slipped into the release, then rose 0.18% in the initial five minutes, BeInCrypto reported. At press time, BTC traded at $83,079, down 1.8% over 24 hours.

Glassnode found that after three prior US data releases, Bitcoin climbed initially but gave back gains within 12 hours. The S&P 500 stayed above its pre-release level each time.

“After PCE inflation, Bitcoin gave back an early 2% jump. After payrolls on October 2, it was 2.3% lower twelve hours later,” the report read.

Who Was Buying Above $85,000?

Trading activity remained light through the breakout, it is worth noting. Glassnode put combined spot and ETF volume at about $6.8 billion per day on a 7-day average. That was lower than on 9 out of 10 days since January 2024.

US buyers were also quiet on spot exchanges. The Coinbase Premium Index, a measure of US demand, stands at -0.056.

A negative reading means Bitcoin trades cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance. The index has been below zero since early September.

Fresh capital also entered slowly. ETF flows, stablecoin growth and corporate treasury buying added about $4.9 billion in the 30 days to October 5. Realized Cap, which values each coin at its last move price, rose about $12.8 billion in that period.

“New money therefore covers less than two-fifths of that rise. The rest is coins changing hands at higher prices among money already in the market. The rallies of 2024 and 2025 showed a similar mix, but on far larger inflows. Until those inflows pick up, the move depends on existing holders paying more,” Glassnode added.

Some of those holders sold when Bitcoin first closed above $85,000 on October 4. On that day, recent buyers holding under 155 days made up about 86% of exchange inflows. No day in the past year saw a larger share.

Futures traders have also held back, analyst MAC_D noted. Open interest fell nearly 10% from about $28.8 billion since September 22, to $26 billion.

Can the Bids at $81,000 Hold?

Santiment’s exchange data indicates the opposite. It recorded net exchange outflows of 24,073 BTC on October 5, the largest since March 1.

Exchange supply has dropped to about 6.50% of total supply. Santiment views that as bullish, since fewer coins are ready for immediate sale.

On the Binance order book, Glassnode data through October 7 shows large orders on both sides of the price.

Below the price, the biggest bids sit at $81,000 to $81,250 and have been in place since October 3. Just above them, a liquidation cluster runs from about $81,700 to $83,300. Forced sale of leveraged longs there could add to any decline, Glassnode said. The next cluster down sits near $75,000.

On the upside, Glassnode said a settled close above $85,500 would restore the level Bitcoin gave up this week. Beyond that lies a block of sell orders at $86,500 to $86,750.

Above it, a short liquidation cluster runs from about $87,100 to $95,900, heaviest near $92,000. A push through those orders could force short sellers to cover, adding to a move higher.

The October 14 consumer price index (CPI) release is the next macro test. It lands about two weeks before the Fed meets on October 27 and 28.