Bitcoin's 62% Halving Progress: Bear Market Over?

The current halving period for bitcoin is 62% complete, a point at which previous bear market lows either formed or approached. Day 900 since the April 2024 halving has now been reached.

Bitcoin is trading near $83,100. That is around 34% lower than its October 2025 high and roughly 44% above its July trough.

Where the Bitcoin Halving Clock Stands

According to Bitcoin.org's countdown, the network is at block 970,344. The fifth halving will occur at block 1,050,000, which is 79,656 blocks in the future.

Given the typical rate of one block per ten minutes, the halving is expected around April 2028. The block reward will then drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.

Measured by blocks, the period is 62% done. Some market observers suggest the four-year pattern could transition into a longer cycle. Historically, however, the timing has remained steady.

Bitcoin Halving at 62% Lines Up With Past Bottoms

Analyst The Rational Root mapped the 62% mark across all four halving cycles.

For the first cycle, the 62% mark occurred in early 2015. Bitcoin recorded its bear market low in January of that year.

The third cycle saw the 62% point in late 2022. The bottom around $15,500 came in November 2022 following the FTX collapse.

Other analysts have similarly attempted to time the cycle bottom using historical patterns. The current cycle has already bounced from a July low near $57,800.

Bitcoin Tops Before Day 550, Bottoms Near Day 900

Trader Jesse Olson examined price movements across all four post-halving periods, scaling earlier cycles to the 2024 halving price. He stated:

“Every top formed prior to 550 days. Every bottom formed near or before 900 days.”

So far, the current cycle matches that pattern. Bitcoin hit its record above $125,000 on October 6, 2025, approximately day 534.

Today marks day 900. BTC has broken above the downtrend line from that peak, according to Olson.

Why the Bear Market Call Is Not Settled

But there is an exception to the pattern. In 2018, the 62% mark appeared when BTC was around $6,000. The price then fell to roughly $3,200 by mid-December, nearly halving its value.

A second warning comes from Olson: after breaking their downtrend lines, two of the three previous cycles pulled back to retest them.

If a similar retest occurs now, BTC could fall back towards its July low. Binance Research discovered that similar rebounds frequently retraced to their lows.

The picture is also affected by diminishing returns. This cycle's decline has reached around 54%, compared to 77% or more in previous bear markets.

Still, smaller moves have not disrupted the timing. If the July low around $57,800 holds, the halving clock indicates the bear market might be over. A drop below that level would suggest a final leg similar to 2018.