Bitcoin, Ethereum Notch Multi-Month Highs but Polymarket Odds Stay Low for 2026 Records

This week, bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) again rose to their highest levels in several months. Nonetheless, traders on prediction markets give both cryptocurrencies small probabilities of reaching record highs by 2026.

On Polymarket, the probability of bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year is 32%. For ethereum, the likelihood of climbing to $3,500 stands at 31%.

Rate-Pause Talk and ETF Money Boost Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin increased 4.62% in 24 hours, reaching $80,861. At the same time, ethereum rose 4.85% to $2,501, based on BeInCrypto Markets data.

The upturn comes after reports indicated the conflict in Iran may be ending. Also, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated he would be in favor of leaving rates unchanged.

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September declined to 50% on Monday, down from a peak of 70%.

Weaker-than-expected employment data supported the trend. ADP announced that private-sector US payrolls grew by 38,000 in August, below the consensus estimate of about 47,000. This represented the smallest monthly gain since January.

Institutional appetite has also revived. Spot bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $101.1 million in net fresh capital, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust leading the way.

Traders Adjust Near-Term Bets, Leave Ceilings Unchanged

On Polymarket, traders concentrated on short-term outcomes. The contract for bitcoin hitting $85,000 surged 43 percentage points to 81%, whereas the probability of a decline to $70,000 dropped 28 points to 48%.

Further-out goals remained unchanged. Contracts for $95,000, $100,000, $110,000, and $120,000 recorded no movement in 24 hours, steady at 44%, 32%, 20%, and 12%. The $90,000 level edged down 2 points to 61%.

Ethereum mirrors this behavior. Its $2,750 contract rose 25 points to 75%, and the $3,000 contract gained 4 points to 54%. Meanwhile, $3,500 and $4,000 remained unchanged at 31% and 17%.

Bearish wagers persist. Traders assign a 72% probability to bitcoin falling back to $75,000 and a 56% chance for ethereum dropping to $2,250.

The US employment report on Friday will challenge the sustainability of the rate-pause narrative. At present, market positioning views the rally as a repositioning within a range, not a return to the all-time highs of $126,080 for bitcoin and $4,946 for ethereum.