Bitcoin Flashes Key Bottom Signal After 45-Week Absence

Since August, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen approximately 30%. Even with September's volatility, the top cryptocurrency has recorded a 3.33% gain for the month, remaining in positive territory.

In addition to these gains, Bitcoin has shown a crucial indicator that implies the cycle's bear market floor might have been reached.

Alex Thorn Highlights Bitcoin Indicator Historically Confirmed Bear Market Lows

The signal occurred on Sunday. For the first time since November 2025, Bitcoin ended a week above its 50-week moving average. That level had not been surpassed in a weekly close for 45 weeks.

Alex Thorn, who leads firmwide research at Galaxy, noted the close and referenced its historical significance in past cycles.

“Regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are in,” he said.

Historical figures offer background for Thorn's perspective. In a research report, the executive found 13 cases in finished bear markets where Bitcoin moved back above its 50-week moving average.

Just two of those cases ended with a subsequent lower low, both happening in the 2021–2022 downturn. More generally, out of five bear markets that dropped below the moving average, four saw the initial recovery after the cycle low serve as the eventual rebound indicator.

This track record clarifies why the recent weekly close attracted attention. Still, the 50-week average is just one element of the larger cycle framework.

Significance of the 50-Week and 200-Week Averages for Bitcoin

Historically, Bitcoin's 50-week and 200-week moving averages have served as key reference marks in major market cycles. The 200-week average has functioned as a support level, with just 56 out of 642 weekly closes occurring beneath it since its inception.

The 50-week average has acted as resistance, limiting upward moves until a decline finishes. According to Thorn, the current cycle has "so far behaved similarly to the 2015 and 2018 bear markets at the floor."

Bitcoin dropped below its 50-week moving average in the week ending November 16, 2025. Subsequently, it hit a bear market trough of $58,525 on June 30, 2026, representing a 53.1% drop from its October 2025 all-time high of $124,824.

Bitcoin has risen 39% since that low. Sunday's weekly close was 3.0% above the 50-week moving average at $78,786 and 23.9% above the 200-week average at $65,487. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $81,341.

Moving back above both averages bolsters the argument that the bottom might be set. Nevertheless, the recent price action does not rule out another downturn.

Many analysts predict Bitcoin will reach its low in October. The next few weeks will determine if June's trough stands as the cycle bottom or if the calendar-based forecast is correct.