Bitcoin holds near recent lows as Fed rate-hike bets weigh

Bitcoin has been largely trading in a narrow range close to its recent troughs, under pressure from the renewed hawkish repricing triggered by Federal Reserve Governor Waller's comments and stronger-than-expected US inflation figures.

Fed Governor Waller indicated he would back a rate increase in December whatever the inflation data show, and even flagged the possibility of a larger 50-basis-point move if price pressures prove stronger than forecast.

The US CPI data duly topped expectations, lifting the odds of a half-point hike. Following the release, Cleveland Fed President Hammack also kept the door open for a bigger rate rise. Market pricing currently implies only a 12% probability of a 50-basis-point increase, though those chances could increase if more Fed policymakers signal support or fail to push back against the idea.

US-Iran talks remain at an impasse. The Wall Street Journal reported that Vice President Vance is contemplating direct discussions with a senior Iranian security official in an effort to end the conflict.

Separate reports, however, indicated that senior Iranian figures believe Washington is preparing either fresh military strikes or tighter economic pressure to provoke a response from Tehran. Deep mutual distrust persists, reinforcing the view that a diplomatic resolution may not be as close as markets had hoped.

Looking forward, bitcoin is expected to stay under pressure given the unfavourable macro environment. A more dovish tone from Fed speakers or a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations could conversely spark a relief rally.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, bitcoin is approaching the key upward trendline. Should the price reach that level, buyers are likely to support it, with a clear risk below the trendline, aiming for a rally toward 98,000, with the downward trendline as the first target. Sellers, meanwhile, would want a break lower to ramp up bearish bets targeting 67,000 next.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4-hour chart, the price has moved within a small falling channel. Sellers are expected to continue leaning on the top trendline, with a defined risk above it, to maintain pressure for a breakdown below the major upward trendline. Buyers, on the other hand, will seek a break higher to enter for a correction toward the major downward trendline.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1-hour chart, sellers have a better risk-to-reward setup around the upper channel boundary, while buyers will look for a breakout or a rejection at the major upward trendline. The red lines mark the average daily range for today.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Today brings the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow the week concludes with US PPI data.