Bitcoin-Nasdaq Signal Flips Bullish After 200-Day Reclaim

Technology shares are declining while bitcoin remains steady. The bitcoin-to-Nasdaq ratio, which measures bitcoin priced in tech stocks, regained its 200-day moving average on September 18 following 235 consecutive sessions below that level and has not closed beneath it since. Sean Hagan explains that after similar reclaims, bitcoin rose a year later in five out of six cases, with a median gain of about 84%. He also discusses why the current cycle's 62% reset is the shallowest on record and compares it with the 2021 fake-out. Additionally, he provides his invalidation level and his designated $100K threshold.

Chapters:

• 0:00 Bitcoin priced in tech stocks: four cycle resets ranging from 87% to 62%
• 0:37 The ratio reclaims its 200-day average after 235 sessions below it
• 1:05 Is bitcoin merely a leveraged tech play? What critics overlook
• 1:49 Beta drops to 0.75 and the leveraged drawdown has already occurred
• 2:32 How much trust in a 5-of-6 hit rate? 15 backtest combinations
• 3:03 Above the 100, 150 and 200-day averages, with the Puell Multiple confirming
• 3:52 The 2021 fake-out: why mid-cycle dips are not resets
• 4:56 The tougher macro backdrop: Brent at $113 and the 10-year near 5%
• 5:39 Invalidation at $76–77K and the $100K line in the sand
• 6:39 Drawdowns along the way and why the reset is complete

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