Bitcoin remains under pressure as Fed's Waller flags possible 50 bps rate hike and US CPI looms

Bitcoin received some support on Monday as positive risk sentiment grew on hopes that the US and Iran could reach a diplomatic agreement.

Reports indicated that meetings between US President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance and Qatar's prime minister were constructive, with discussions focusing on advancing talks with Iran. Trump stated after his meeting with the Qatari premier that Qatar would prefer a peaceful resolution with Iran, though the US is prepared to launch strikes if needed.

Additionally, the US has permitted a limited level of uranium enrichment inside Iran, a step Tehran has accepted, and a preliminary accord on reducing enrichment appears likely.

Tuesday's focus turns to the US CPI release. Year-over-year figures will not be available due to last year's government shutdown. Weak data would not alter the outlook, as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated he would back a rate hike in December even if the CPI improves versus September.

Traders will monitor whether the month-over-month core CPI comes in at 0.3% or higher, because Waller said he would favour a larger 0.5% hike under that scenario. Waller is a highly influential Fed governor and has served as a reliable signal for Fed policy since 2021, making his views closely watched by markets.

A more hawkish Fed combined with no end to the Iran conflict would weigh heavily on growth projections and bitcoin.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, bitcoin is nearing the major upward trendline. If the price reaches that level, buyers are expected to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it, aiming for a rally toward the 98,000 level with the downward trendline as the initial target. Sellers, meanwhile, would want to see a breakdown to increase bearish bets toward the 67,000 level next.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4-hour chart, a minor resistance zone exists around the 76,000 level, where the price has been rejected several times over recent weeks. If a pullback occurs, sellers are expected to step in around that resistance with a defined risk above it, continuing to target the major upward trendline. Buyers, on the other hand, will seek a break higher to extend the pullback toward the downward trendline next.

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1-hour chart, little additional insight is available: sellers have a better risk-to-reward setup around the resistance, while buyers will look for a break above resistance or a bounce near the major upward trendline. The red lines mark the average daily range for today.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Today the US CPI report is due. Tomorrow, the latest US Jobless Claims data will be released. On Friday, the week concludes with the US PPI figures.