US October Hiring Surpasses Forecasts, Lifting the Dollar and Weighing on Gold, Bitcoin

The US dollar climbed while Bitcoin and gold declined after the October jobs report recorded 165,000 new positions, a figure roughly triple what analysts had anticipated. The release arrived five weeks before a Federal Reserve meeting that traders had already begun pricing a probable rate increase into.

The shifts across markets were not dramatic, but each moved in a consistent direction. When hiring runs strong, the Fed has more scope to raise rates, a move that normally pushes the dollar up and drags on assets like bullion and Bitcoin that do not offer interest.

How Gold, Bitcoin, and the Dollar Reacted to the Jobs Report?

Gold suffered the largest setback. Its price dipped to about $4,032 an ounce within minutes of the 8:30 a.m. ET data drop, after sitting at roughly $4,062 just before. The metal later clawed back toward $4,050.

The pullback keeps a longer descent in train. BeInCrypto data shows a 31% gold price crash from the commodity's high.

Bitcoin whipsawed. For a short stretch it topped $76,100, then sank to about $75,600 before settling near $75,780 on Binance, roughly 0.2% below its pre-report reading.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, shot up to about 102.22 before easing back to roughly 102.14, above the 102.07 it stood at prior to the release.

US equity markets opened at 9:30 a.m. ET with limited capacity for another jolt. The Nasdaq Composite shed 5.52% on Thursday, pushing it into what is described as Nasdaq correction territory, while the S&P 500 ended the session at 7,353.73.

Why Strong Hiring Knock Gold and Bitcoin Lower

Job creation beat expectations broadly. Market forecasts had ranged between 59,000 and 65,000 positions, yet the Bureau of Labor Statistics figure came in at 165,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, undershooting the 4.2% consensus prediction.

US JOBS REPORT SMASHES FORECASTS — FED RATE HIKE ODDS IN FOCUS

The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, nearly triple the 59,000 expected, while unemployment fell to 4.1%, beating the 4.2% consensus.

🔸 Nonfarm payrolls: +165K vs. +59K expected
🔸 Unemployment rate: 4.1%…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 6, 2026

Earlier months also proved stronger than first reported. Revisions to August and September added a combined 84,000 jobs, bringing the three-month mean hiring figure to roughly 137,000.

Wage growth ran ahead of projections too. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, topping the 0.3% and 2.9% that economists had looked for.

Before the report landed, Barclays said a 4.1% unemployment rate alongside only moderate job increases would keep a December hike on the table. October delivered that 4.1% rate and hiring that was anything but moderate.

Is a December Fed Rate Hike Now Locked in?

The data alone does not seal the outcome. Traders had assigned a 67% probability to a quarter-point rise at the December 8–9 meeting before the numbers surfaced, based on CME FedWatch data. The odds have since jumped to 76.8%.

The Fed raised borrowing costs in September for the first time in three years and held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28.

Employment data has not been the only force shaping expectations. After September’s weak month of 29,000 hires, the probability of a December move still climbed from 42% to 73% in a single month, according to Kiplinger.

Some analysts see a higher threshold. MUFG said a sustained bond selloff would most likely require monthly gains of about 200,000 combined with a falling jobless rate. October’s 165,000 did not hit that bar.

What Gold and Bitcoin Holders Face Before December 9

BeInCrypto had identified this month’s jobs report as one of the three big Bitcoin tests, alongside the midterm elections and central bank rate calls. CNBC’s Jim Cramer also cautioned that it could test the midterm rally.

The Fed’s December meeting will produce updated rate projections. Those forecasts will reveal whether officials envision a single further hike or the start of a longer tightening stretch, a choice that sets the direction of borrowing expenses for US households and the dollar that both gold and Bitcoin are priced against.