Bitcoin Revisits May Highs as Recent Buyers' Break-Even Levels Drop

On Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $81,050, a level not seen since May 14. For those who bought more recently, the distance to their break-even level is much greater now than it was back then.

Data from Glassnode indicates that the average acquisition price of coins less than 155 days old has fallen steeply. At the same time, BTC is trading at roughly the same height as it was in May.

Short-Term Holders' Cost Basis Has Dropped Nearly $7,500

The Short-Term Holder MVRV gauge tracks how far above or below their typical entry point recent buyers are positioned. On September 3 it ended the day at 1.1415, compared with 1.0298 on May 14.

The two dates saw nearly identical prices. May 14's close was $81,059.69 and September 3's was $81,261.98, leaving a gap of only 0.25%.

The implied cost basis, by contrast, paints another picture. It was around $78,713 in May and now stands near $71,188, a reduction of about $7,500.

That alters the room for error. In May, a decline of 2.9% would have sent the entire group back into losses. The pullback came, and the advance faded toward the low $60,000s.

At present, these holders carry a 12.4% cushion, more than four times larger. In the past, that cushion has determined whether rebounds stick or break down.

SOPR Indicates Profitability Without Distribution

The buffer appears reassuring. The Spent Output Profit Ratio, though, muddies the outlook.

On September 3, SOPR came in at 1.0082. That means coins transferred on-chain were sold at an average profit of under 1%.

Comparable breakout moves have yielded far stronger readings. In November 2024 SOPR hit 1.086, and in July 2025 it reached 1.179.

Long-term holders look quiet. Because their coins hold the biggest gains, any substantial distribution would push the ratio far past present levels.

The indicator, however, works in both directions. Weekly volume has continued to fall, and the surge that accompanied last week's rally has not returned. Sparse participation could point to scarce supply among holders, or to a rally fuelled by derivatives instead of spot demand.

Bitcoin's Next Move: The $82,842 Trigger

Over the weekly time frame, Bitcoin had been forming lower highs and lower lows ever since its $126,200 peak. That pattern is now coming apart. BTC has produced a higher low and is trading 35.8% beneath its record high.

A weekly finish above $82,842 would mark the first higher high since that peak. This week's high so far stands at $82,285, about $557 shy.

Resistance is just overhead at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, around $83,917. If the $82,842 trigger is broken but the move stalls at that zone, the reversal would remain unconfirmed.

Support is unusually clear. The 200-day moving average is at $69,664, the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $70,855, and the on-chain cost basis at $71,188, forming a band only 2.16% wide.

That moving average was last tested as resistance by Bitcoin on May 14. Now the price is 16.3% above it.

Momentum signals caution about buying at current levels. The daily RSI is around 72, having reached 78 in late August, an early sign of bearish divergence. The weekly RSI, meanwhile, is near 60 and still has headroom. A pickup in volume would resolve the debate.

A move above $83,917 would confirm the reversal. Should the price slip below $71,188, the buyers behind this move would give up their gains.