Bitcoin's Head-And-Shoulders Break Sets Up a Move Toward $71,000

Bitcoin (BTC) has lost more than 1% of its value this month and last changed hands at $77,577, as geopolitical tensions and interest-rate expectations continue to weigh on risk assets.

Traders are tracking several possible downside targets after the pullback. $71,000 has been singled out by one analyst, and seasonal trends imply a comparable level. On-chain data, however, places the structural support for Bitcoin much lower.

Head-And-Shoulders Break Puts $71K in Focus

Two analysts, CryptoGoos and Wealthmanager, both identified the same setup on the four-hour timeframe. The ascending neckline has already been lost, and price is now attempting to reclaim it from below.

If that retest meets rejection, Wealthmanager says $71,000 becomes a live target. The same analyst also specified what would invalidate the pattern.

$BTC is forming a clear head and shoulders on the 4H.

Price has already lost the neckline and is now attempting a retest.

If the retest gets rejected this could open the door toward $71K.

The setup gets invalidated if $BTC reclaims the neckline and holds above it.

— Wealthmanager (@Wealthmanager), September 2, 2026

The entire setup therefore depends on a single level. If Bitcoin can reclaim the neckline and hold above it, the bearish case is removed.

Past Green Augusts Point to September Weakness

Seasonal data adds to the bearish picture. Bitcoin gained 24.95% last month, its strongest August performance since 2017.

CoinGlass's monthly return data show four previous cases in which a green August was followed by a lower September, and strong August gains have historically often led into September declines.

The falls in those years were 1.76% in 2013, 7.44% in 2017, 7.51% in 2020 and 7.03% in 2021, making the median 7.24%.

Applying that median drop to September's opening price of $78,516 on Binance yields a projection of $72,831. The sample is small, though: just four cases in 13 years. The past three Septembers have all closed positive, and none followed a green August.

Glassnode Puts the Floor Much Lower

Glassnode places the structural floor far beneath both projections. An accumulation floor between $62,000 and $65,000 was built during the summer's consolidation, according to the analytics firm.

The firm also flags a layer of long liquidation fuel between $60,000 and $63,000. Meanwhile, substantial long-term holder supply between $83,000 and $86,000 could cap rallies above the current price.

“Until the overhead ceiling is absorbed, the structural floor between $62K and $65K defines the primary downside reference,” the firm said.

The three levels are far apart. The reaction at the neckline could be the deciding factor in which level comes into view first.