Bitcoin Steadies Above $80,000 With Midterms and Fed on the Horizon

Bitcoin price hovered around $80,500 for most of Tuesday, staying above the $80,000 threshold that the market views as a key support level. The daily range spanned roughly $79,400 to $80,800, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro, and by mid-afternoon Eastern time the cryptocurrency was up about 0.3% over the preceding 24 hours.

This calm follows a turbulent period. On Monday, bitcoin dropped below $80,000 as investors reduced risk, worried about valuations in the AI sector and rising oil prices. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows. Nonetheless, the selling has not escalated into panic. This week, bitcoin has largely remained within a range of roughly $79,000 to $81,000.

Taking a broader perspective, those who purchased near the peak are faring worse. Bitcoin's record high, reached in October 2025, stands at about $126,000, and the current price is roughly 30% lower than the same period last year.

The Federal Reserve's policy meeting is scheduled for October 27 and 28, with the decision expected on Wednesday. The central bank has kept its target range at 3.75% to 4%, having raised it in September, and policymakers have indicated that another rate hike might be necessary by the end of the year.

The last clear market odds from early October pointed toward a hold, but those figures are outdated and probably have shifted. Traders will watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference for clues about a possible December rate increase.

Bitcoin price reasoning as midterms approach

The reasoning for bitcoin is straightforward. Higher interest rates reduce liquidity for speculative assets, meaning a hawkish surprise could send the price back to around $80,000 or lower.

If the Fed holds rates or adopts a softer stance, buyers might have room to drive the price back toward the $88,000 area that was seen earlier this autumn. The November 3 midterm elections introduce an additional factor. According to a Polymarket reading referenced in recent reporting, prediction markets have leaned toward Democrats taking control of both chambers of Congress.

For the crypto sector, the key near-term policy issue is the pending market structure legislation, and how lawmakers vote on it may influence the industry's approach to the elections. Historically, bitcoin and other risk assets have tended to rise in the 12 months following midterm cycles.

Analysts at TD Cowen have cautioned that the election outcomes could delay the CLARITY Act by two years. Prediction markets indicated a 90% probability of Democrats winning the House and a 62% chance of them winning the Senate — a result that TD Cowen labeled as the most bearish for bitcoin.

A divided Congress, with Republicans retaining control of the Senate, was considered more favorable, whereas a Republican sweep was seen as the most beneficial scenario for crypto. The legislation had stalled following a failed Senate cloture vote in September, with ethics provisions and stablecoin yields continuing to be points of disagreement among lawmakers.

As of this writing, bitcoin's price stands at approximately $80,600.