BoJ meeting opinions and China trade data: Tuesday's Asia highlights

Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions and China trade figures are the key events for Asian markets on Tuesday.

Bank of Japan: Summary of Opinions (October 29-30 meeting)

The Bank of Japan will publish its Summary of Opinions from the October 29-30 policy meeting at 23:50 GMT on Monday (18:50 US Eastern time).

This document is a brief, anonymous compilation of views expressed by board members and government representatives during the meeting. It is released roughly a week and a half after the policy decision. Speakers remain unnamed, and the governor, who chairs the meeting, edits the text. Its main benefit is timeliness: it offers an early indication of the debate's direction, how many members are inclined toward the next policy move, and what preconditions they want to see satisfied. The minutes are a separate document, published only after the subsequent meeting. Thus, the October minutes will not appear until December 23, following the December decision. While the minutes provide a more detailed account of the discussions, they are largely outdated by that point. The Summary is the document with the potential to move the yen.

At the meeting, the BoJ maintained its policy rate at 1.25%, a 31-year peak, by an 8-1 vote. Board member Hajime Takata dissented, advocating a rate hike to 1.5%, arguing that underlying inflation has already hit the 2% target. The Bank stated that underlying inflation is now broadly in line with its target and that price risks lean to the upside. It raised its fiscal 2027 core inflation forecast to 2.6% from 2.4% and lowered its growth projection to 0.7%. Additionally, it surprised markets by more than doubling the pace of its ETF sales, targeting around 860 billion yen annually starting January 2027. Governor Kazuo Ueda later moderated the inflation message during his press conference.

Attention is now on December. The BoJ raised rates in June and September, and market participants broadly expect it to maintain that quarterly pace with a move to 1.5% at the December 17-18 meeting. Watch for how many members indicate that conditions for the next step are already met, whether anyone else shares Takata's sense of urgency, and if the more cautious members cite the weaker growth outlook or oil-driven import costs. A Summary with strong support for near-term tightening would reinforce December rate hike expectations and support the yen. A more cautious tone would leave the timing uncertain.

China: October trade data

China will release October trade figures on Tuesday. According to a Reuters poll, exports are expected to have grown around 33% year on year in dollar terms, a slight deceleration from September's 36% surge, while imports are forecast to have risen about 32%. The trade surplus is projected to be near $126 billion, down from roughly $134 billion in September, but sufficient to push the total for the first ten months of 2026 above $1 trillion. Demand for AI infrastructure hardware has fueled the export boom, though some analysts view October's decline in new export orders as an early sign that the tech cycle may be weakening.

The equity market context is more significant. The CSI 300 fell 8.5% in October, its worst month in over a decade, and recorded a record 12 consecutive weekly losses due to a weak economy and doubts about AI earnings. Beijing initially called on state funds, known as the "national team," to buy shares and urged companies to increase buybacks. On November 2, the PBOC and the securities regulator revived the 2024 policy toolkit. They are expanding the swap facility that funds stock purchases by brokers, funds, and insurers. The relending rate for buybacks was cut to 1% from 1.25%, and that facility was made permanent. Rules on buybacks were also eased. Investors were initially skeptical, leading state funds to increase their purchases. So, the Bank of Japan is accelerating its ETF sales while Beijing's state funds are buying. A strong trade report may provide some support for sentiment, but analysts argue that a sustained recovery requires household-focused fiscal support and a more stable property market.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda.