Brandt's Biggest FX Bet Is Short EUR/JPY as Yen Strengthens
Peter Brandt's firm holds its largest futures and FX position in a short EUR/JPY trade as the yen gains on intervention and rate expectations.
Bolivia changed gold export rules, requiring 80% of proceeds to be deposited locally and scrapping the central-bank certificate, to ease its dollar shortage.
Because the measure operates on Bolivia's domestic foreign-exchange arrangements rather than on bullion pricing, global gold markets are unlikely to feel much impact. If dollars move more reliably into Bolivian banks, pressure on the exchange rate and on importers seeking hard currency should ease, fitting with the recent switch to a flexible rate. However, if exporters consider the 80% repatriation requirement too strict, some may return to informal routes, defeating the purpose. Those with exposure to Bolivia's dollar-denominated debt will probably watch reserve and deposit figures to judge whether the plan is succeeding.
With dollars scarce, Bolivia is trading the central bank's export paperwork for a single rule on gold: most proceeds must come back home.
Summary:
On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that Bolivia is reworking its gold-export regulations to attract more US dollars and raise dollar balances held in domestic banks.
Exporters must now demonstrate to the mining and metals trade regulator, SENARECOM, that at least 80% of their gold-export earnings are held in Bolivian financial institutions. In exchange, they can ship gold without the certificate the central bank has required until now, a change that brings the three-year certification regime to an end. The president backs the reform; according to the report, it is intended to boost foreign-exchange inflows, widen dollar availability and tighten supervision of the gold trade.
The policy is aimed at a long-standing problem. Dollars have been scarce in Bolivia, and gold has become one of the country's most important export earners. National statistics figures cited by the local newspaper Correo del Sur put gold exports at roughly $1.02 billion in the first five months of this year. That compares with about $1.19 billion for all of 2025 and is far above the decline to roughly $693 million in 2024.
The 2024 decline came after a 2023 gold law under which gold had to be sold to the state. The mining minister has blamed that legislation for driving trade into smuggling routes and has said the framework must be improved. Bolivia also recently adopted a flexible exchange rate, ending about three years of divergence between official and parallel rates, a step the minister credits with helping gold flows.
Essentially, the new plan replaces central-bank control over shipments with a requirement that dollars be brought back home. How effective it proves to be will depend largely on enforcement. Cooperatives produce nearly all of Bolivia's gold, and critics, among them a former minister, have asked whether SENARECOM can track all the gold that moves through the country. Export volumes over the coming months and any uptick in dollar deposits at Bolivian banks will be the key indicators.
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Peter Brandt's firm holds its largest futures and FX position in a short EUR/JPY trade as the yen gains on intervention and rate expectations.
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