Canadian spending stays on positive track in August, RBC tracker shows

RBC released its latest Canadian consumer spending tracker based on card transaction data. I have found this report to be a reliable leading indicator for the retail sales figures. The next update is set for September 24.

According to RBC, spending maintained a positive trajectory, with increases broadening across major categories. Core sales rose 1.1% month-over-month, stood at 0.6% on a three-month average, and climbed 6.6% year-over-year on a nominal basis.

"Discretionary services continued to lead spending growth, supported by solid gains in travel, entertainment and arts," RBC said. "Discretionary goods spending also improved, while essentials spending remained firm, although gasoline continued to account for an outsized share of the increase."

I suspect this mirrors the high wealth concentration among Boomers, who are seeing waves of retirements.

In contrast, the latest NielsenIQ Omnishopper update via Scotiabank highlights a clear deceleration in spending in Canada and the US. The data puts Canadian consumer goods spending up 4.5% year-over-year, a significant difference from RBC's 6.6% rise in discretionary goods. A possible reconciliation is that RBC cards skew toward wealthier consumers, though I would assume the reports try to adjust for that.

Looking ahead, Scotiabank forecasts real consumer spending will grow 2.3% this year before falling to 1.8% in 2027.