Carney reiterates Canada's unchanged position as US trade deal timeline questioned

The Canadian dollar had already priced in some optimism following weekend statements from US officials, but Carney's remarks and the Semafor story have eroded some of that support, making USD/CAD vulnerable to any new trade developments. If a deal lowers retaliatory tariffs, it would benefit Canadian exporters and cross-border supply chains, so a concrete agreement could still provoke a notable move. Canada remains a key crude supplier to the US, meaning energy trade stays closely watched whenever tariff discussions shift. Given the sharply different portrayals from each government, traders will probably demand detailed information before betting on a deal once more.

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Earlier developments:

• US, Canada negotiating tariff relief on steel and auto products

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Washington claims a deal is near; Ottawa insists it has not shifted at all. The reality likely lies somewhere in between.

Summary highlights:

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated Canada's negotiating position remains unchanged in talks with the United States.
• Carney attributed any progress to the US shifting toward Canada's stance.
• He did acknowledge that negotiations have become slightly more intense.
• Semafor, drawing on unnamed sources, reported that a US-Canada agreement may be less imminent than Washington officials have suggested.
• On Sunday, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett expressed that negotiators were very close to an accord that would reduce retaliatory tariffs, a sentiment shared by President Trump.

On Monday, expectations for a swift US-Canada trade deal diminished after Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada's position remains unchanged in discussions with the US, and that any advancements so far are due to Washington aligning more with Ottawa's demands. The timing coincided with a Semafor report, based on sources, indicating that an agreement is probably less close than US officials had signaled over the weekend.

The Canadian rebuttal came after optimistic Sunday statements from Kevin Hassett, head of the White House National Economic Council, who said talks were nearing a deal that would reduce the reciprocal tariffs between the two nations. President Donald Trump also expressed similar hopefulness.

Carney adopted a more cautious approach. He recognized a modest increase in the pace of discussions but presented it from Canada's perspective, stating that any progress results from the US moving toward Canada's viewpoint. He reiterated that Canada's own position has not shifted, indicating his government is not ready to offer new compromises to finalize an agreement.

Overall, the two countries are portraying the same talks in sharply contrasting ways. The US side signals progress, while Canada stresses that shifts are only coming from Washington. This divergence is significant since both governments have internal incentives to look resolute, and declaring a deal is near can serve as both a negotiating strategy and a factual claim. The Semafor report reinforces the assessment that the outstanding issues are not merely technical.

This does not foreclose the possibility of a deal. The increased pace of talks indicates both sides view an agreement as beneficial, and a deal that reduces retaliatory tariffs would lower expenses for companies on both sides of the highly interconnected border. The short-term issue is whether the negotiations yield a specific framework or explicit tariff cuts instead of more optimistic statements. In the meantime, markets will probably view claims of a near-term deal with greater skepticism than they displayed over the weekend.