NY Fed poll shows unemployment worry at highest since pandemic start
NY Fed survey finds stable inflation expectations but highest fear of rising unemployment since April 2020.
The US employment trends index improved to 108.53 in August, up from 107.71, as components showed positive average contributions.
Given the non-farm payrolls data, the index's increase was not unexpected. This composite index draws together data already available from public sources. Nonetheless, it remains a valuable indicator and has shown an upward trajectory.
The Conference Board provided the following comments:
“The ETI increased for a second consecutive month in August and is now up 2.0% from its level one year ago,” Conrad Qi, Economic Data Scientist Associate at The Conference Board, stated. “Although they were mixed in August on a month-over-month basis, all eight components of the ETI delivered positive average contributions over the past six months. This suggests support for continued job growth after nonfarm payrolls grew by 162,000 in August.” Qi added, “The largest positive contributions to the ETI came from declines in the ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers and the share of consumers reporting that jobs are hard to get. The involuntary part-time ratio fell to 16.2% in August from 17.4% in July, signaling less underemployment. The share of consumers who reported jobs are “hard to get”—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey —declined to 19.5% in August from a revised 21.7% in July, indicating improved perceptions of current job availability.”
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NY Fed survey finds stable inflation expectations but highest fear of rising unemployment since April 2020.
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