Copper May Reach All-Time High on Bullish Economic Signs

On Tuesday, the price of copper advanced to roughly $6.80 per pound, approximately 2% under the record set in September. The rally is being driven by diminishing concerns over a further US rate increase and new mine stoppages in Chile.

Copper climbed 0.5% on the London Metal Exchange, a leading global metals platform, to around $6.63 per pound. This level is approximately 17% above the price at the beginning of 2026, reflecting the metal's strong performance this year.

Fed Rate Concerns Wane as Market Probability Changes

The Fed increased interest rates by 25 basis points in September, marking the first rate hike since 2023. That action brought the target range to 3.75%–4.00%.

Traders now perceive a reduced likelihood of another rate increase this month. According to FedWatch data, there is an 80.6% probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate at its October 28 meeting.

A halt in rate increases would relieve pressure on industrial metals, which typically perform poorly when borrowing costs go up. However, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has stated that additional hikes before the end of 2026 are still possible.

Mine Stoppages Reduce Copper Supply

On Sunday, a mudslide struck the open pit at Codelco's El Teniente mine in Chile, resulting in the deaths of two contractor employees. Codelco partially suspended operations, attributing the incident to heavy rainfall.

El Teniente is Codelco's largest mine; Codelco is the world's leading copper producer. The same site experienced a collapse in July 2025 that killed six miners.

Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, temporarily stopped operations in September. The union at Antofagasta's Centinela mine has stated that its strike will reduce output starting in November.

In Indonesia, Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine is operating at roughly 67% of its normal capacity. A full return to normal output is not anticipated until after the end of 2027.

Consequently, Morgan Stanley projects a copper deficit of approximately 600,000 tons this year. These supply shortfalls contributed to the rally that reached a record in September.

Long-term demand further supports the bullish outlook. Ivan Bebek, CEO of Coppernico Metals, stated that copper demand could surge 50% by 2040.

Copper is about to become the most important metal for humanity.

Demand is expected to jump 50% by 2040 & the world isn't ready.

On Thursday, I went on Fox Business to explain why.

The case for copper + why this is only the start:

— Ivan (@IvanjBebek) October 11, 2026

Copper Price Outlook

Recent price action in copper indicates that the rally may persist, with $7 per pound becoming the next key target.

Since late June, copper has consistently rebounded whenever it approached a rising support line. The metal's 100-day moving average has also acted as a barrier against further declines.

Both these measures now identify $6.55 as a critical threshold where renewed buying might occur.

Copper has recovered above $6.70, a level it had difficulty surpassing earlier this year. The next hurdle is September's record close to $6.95.

Should copper exceed that record, $7 would become the next objective, implying an increase of approximately 3% from current prices.

Factors That Could Drive Copper Prices Down

Despite the favorable trend, some signals suggest that the advance may be losing momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for copper, a measure of buying and selling momentum, stands at about 55. This indicates that buyers still hold an edge, though momentum has diminished since August.

Copper is also trading within a tightening upward range. Such formations can sometimes indicate an impending price correction.

Should prices decline, $6.55 is the first key support level to monitor. A drop below that could drive copper down to $6.31.

The next significant event is on Wednesday, October 14, when the US announces its most recent inflation data.

Inflation that comes in above expectations could raise pressure on the Fed to hike rates, potentially harming copper prices. Conversely, softer inflation could allay those concerns and support copper in testing its prior record.