Cowen Puts 65% Odds on Further Bitcoin Bear Market, Eyes $53K

Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, assesses a 65% probability that Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet reached its cycle low. This assessment keeps his bearish outlook active, even after a significant summer price increase.

During a video interview, Cowen stated this view. He highlighted Bitcoin's realized price, approximately $53,000, as a threshold that bears must still challenge before the market can declare a bottom.

Reasons for Cowen's Continued Bearish Stance

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading near $78,300, a decline of 1.7% in the last day, based on BeInCrypto data. Cowen's remarks followed a roughly 40% recovery for Bitcoin from its summer trough.

Cowen stated that this rally alone does not verify a market bottom. He observed that Bitcoin experienced comparable or larger rebounds in 2018 and 2022. In each of those midterm years, the price subsequently dropped again in the fourth quarter.

Cowen argued that expecting this cycle to deviate from the pattern would replicate an error traders made in earlier cycles. He added that this reasoning remains valid even if his current forecast proves incorrect.

“I would say it’s probably 65% chance the low occurs in the future and 35% chance it’s behind us.”

Benjamin Cowen

Cowen referenced Bitcoin's realized price, the aggregate cost basis of the network, as a historical indicator for cycle bottoms. That figure is currently around $53,000, a level that was also identified as a key marker in BeInCrypto's prior Q4 bottom coverage.

According to Cowen, every prior bear market in a midterm year reached its low below that line. The exact month this occurred has varied significantly between cycles.

The analyst has consistently argued that Bitcoin adheres to a four-year cycle pattern. He stated that lows usually develop in the fourth quarter of a midterm year. A low occurring in October would keep that historical pattern intact.

Outlook for the Coming Months

Cowen noted that navigating through October without a lower low would begin to shift the probabilities in favor of the bulls. He said the more significant risk is a time-based capitulation rather than reaching a specific price point.

He anticipates some challenges for Bitcoin over approximately the next month and a half. As the fourth quarter advances, he expects a growing number of bears to adopt a bullish stance.

If the established pattern breaks and bearish investors capitulate, Cowen said he would abandon his own bearish view. He expects to become bullish again leading into 2027, irrespective of how the remainder of this year unfolds.

Cowen stated that a dollar-cost-averaging strategy is often more effective than attempting to identify the absolute bottom. He added that this is not financial advice.

For now, he considers $53,000 the critical level to monitor, rather than concluding that the bottom has already been reached.