Crude Oil Extends Weekly Decline Amid Renewed US-Iran Deal Hopes

Crude oil began the week trading lower, adding to its recent losses as sentiment grew around a potential US-Iran agreement to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Iran put forward a two-day structure for reopening the waterway, seeking American concessions such as sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, and changes to the US military presence.

The timeline is shorter than the seven-day plan Iran floated a month earlier. Markets viewed the speeded-up schedule as a constructive sign, though the US has yet to agree and talks are still ongoing. Separate from this, the Saudi-Houthi confrontation is rising, and the exchanges of strikes between Russia and Ukraine on energy systems have stretched further.

For the oil market, the US-Iran talks are the dominant variable. A deal would probably prompt a heavy round of selling, while any obstacles in the process should underpin prices. Calming the Saudi-Houthi front might bring an adjustment too, but any downward move would be contained if the US-Iran discussions remain deadlocked.

OIL TECHNICAL FORECAST – DAILY TIMEFRAME

Crude started the week trading down, with mounting US-Iran optimism deepening the slide. A fall into the channel's lower boundary could draw buying interest, allowing traders to position for a climb towards the 110.00 barrier while limiting risk below the channel. Conversely, sellers need a sustained break to the downside to push bearish wagers towards the 68.00 floor.

OIL TECHNICAL FORECAST – 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME

The price has slipped under the ascending trendline and is now probing a crucial support area near the 99.50 mark. Buyers are expected to defend this level, working with a defined risk beneath it to set up a rebound toward 110.00. Sellers, on the other hand, are looking for a clear break through this zone to lift bearish positions into the channel's lowest boundary.

OIL TECHNICAL FORECAST – 1-HOUR TIMEFRAME

Buying interest enjoys a more favorable risk-to-reward configuration around the current support zone. Sellers require a decisive break below this area to push the pullback into untested lower territory.

SCHEDULED CATALYSTS

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for today. Tuesday's releases cover the US Job Openings data and the midterm elections. Wednesday features the US ADP report and the ISM Services PMI. Thursday provides the latest US Jobless Claims data, and Friday closes the week with the NFP report and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.