Crude Rallies to Test $93.50 as Middle East Tensions Rise

Oil futures moved higher on the day, gaining $1.27 (1.39%) to trade at $92.75. The session saw a peak of $93.29 and a trough of $90.87.

From a technical perspective, prices dipped earlier but found support at the ascending 100-hour moving average, now at $91.04. That level held, encouraging buyers to drive prices higher again.

The uptrend carried prices above the 50% retracement of the decline from the April 2026 peak to the July low, which sits at $92.47. Yet buyers have not managed to push past the swing highs from June 10 around $93.50.

Consequently, the $92.47–$93.50 range becomes the crucial technical battleground for both bulls and bears ahead.

A decisive break above $93.50 would reinforce the bullish outlook and pave the way for further gains. The next key level to watch would be the June 3 swing high around $97.00, followed by the 61.8% retracement of the April-to-July drop at $98.41.

On the flip side, failure to clear $93.50 and a return below the $92.47 (50%) level with conviction would signal a warning for bulls. Focus would then revert to the ascending 100-hour moving average at $91.04.

Staying above the 100-hour MA keeps the short-term technical edge with buyers. But a drop below it would undermine the bullish setup and possibly trigger further selling towards the swing lows from last Friday and Wednesday around $88.72.

The technical contest is focused on the $92.47–$93.50 zone. A push above hands more control to buyers, while a fall back below gives sellers a chance to reclaim more control, at least temporarily.

Underlying fundamentals remain bullish as US-Iran tensions intensify near the Strait of Hormuz.

Over the weekend, US forces attacked three Iranian oil tankers, one of them near Iran's major Kharg Island export terminal. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed it retaliated by striking three tankers moving through what it termed unauthorized lanes, as well as three US ships in other parts of the region.

The fresh assaults have heightened worries that Middle East oil supply disruptions might persist longer than earlier anticipated. Over the last ten days, an average of just 10 commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily—the lowest count since May. The waterway normally carries roughly a fifth of global oil.

Iran additionally announced plans to create a new restricted area near the Strait of Hormuz. Further restrictions or strikes on merchant ships would raise the risk premium embedded in crude prices.

Separately, OPEC+ kept its October output policy steady over the weekend. The move offers scant near-term comfort to a market increasingly concerned with shipping disruptions and the possibility of an extended drop in Middle East exports.

For market participants, geopolitical developments offer fundamental backing, but technical levels remain the key to whether bulls can push further. The market requires a clear break above the $92.47–$93.50 resistance zone to pave the way towards $97.00 and possibly $98.41.