Dan Held Predicts $100 Trillion SpaceX Valuation as Launch Costs Plummet

SpaceX could hit a $100 trillion valuation within two decades, according to early Bitcoin investor Dan Held. He attributes this to declining launch costs, which he believes are opening up markets in missile defense, satellite internet and rocket travel.

The core of Held's argument is a single figure: the expense of putting one kilogram of payload into orbit. That cost was roughly $20,000 in the Space Shuttle period, but Held contends Starship could bring it down to $10.

Betting on Starship

Held laid out his argument on The Rollup, a podcast covering crypto and macroeconomics. He added that five years ago he sold most of his holdings in the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange to put money into SpaceX.

He likened the wager to his early belief in Bitcoin (BTC). Held has been examining the cryptocurrency's capped supply of 21 million coins since 2012.

Starlink, missile defense and orbital data centers

Held cited Starlink as an early validation of his thesis. He argued it is more than just a substitute for fiber optic cables. Rather, it is growing into an operation that could compete with major telecom companies, not merely internet service providers.

He also connected the technology to missile defense capabilities. Orbital detection of rocket launches could allow the United States to intercept threats on short notice. He drew a parallel to the Golden Dome missile shield concept.

Additional applications cover orbital data centers, where higher launch expenses are offset by almost nonexistent operating costs. Held also mentioned point-to-point travel, which could reduce a flight from New York to Tokyo to 25 minutes.

As a result, Held stated that the total addressable market for space infrastructure might one day surpass worldwide economic output.

A $10 trillion milestone

Held forecast that SpaceX's valuation might hit $10 trillion inside three years, provided Starship production continues to ramp up. He anticipates $100 trillion by the time he is in his late fifties.

Other well-known investors hold the same belief. Cathie Wood recently described SpaceX as her preferred equity and said it might become the most significant company in history.

Yet SpaceX shares have experienced volatility since their public listing, dropping 35% from their high despite inclusion in the Nasdaq-100.

Elon Musk's own extended revenue goals have also outpaced Wall Street's projections by years, highlighting how uncertain multi-decade predictions are.