Dollar gains on most pairs after RBA's expected rate hike

Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.60%. The move was unanimous. The central bank acknowledged that some upside risks to inflation are becoming apparent, with higher energy costs and domestic price pressures among its concerns. It also kept the possibility of further tightening on the table, stressing that policy decisions ahead will hinge on incoming data and the evolving outlook.

The Australian dollar, however, has lost ground. In the most recent FX snapshot, AUDUSD traded around 0.6999, falling 0.21% and ranking as the weakest major currency against the U.S. dollar. This marks a key point for traders: despite the RBA's hike, the price action suggests buyers have not seized control of the currency. With the decision widely anticipated, market participants are now assessing the likelihood of further rate increases.

Against six of the seven major currencies, the U.S. dollar has advanced. NZDUSD slipped 0.19% to around 0.5653, EURUSD declined 0.18% to near 1.1349, and GBPUSD eased 0.10% to roughly 1.3239. The greenback also strengthened versus the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar. The yen proved the outlier, with USDJPY down 0.08% at about 157.22.

EURUSD fell from the outset of the Asia-Pacific session, but once it touched the latest swing low from June, buyers stepped in and drove the pair higher. The 100-hour moving average continues to serve as a crucial level that must be surpassed and hold to strengthen the bullish outlook.

The Middle East remains in focus.

Talks between Washington and Tehran are still ongoing, yet a pact to resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not materialised. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Tehran has exchanged fresh proposals with Qatari mediators and anticipates an American reply via Qatar. Iran maintains that any re-opening of the strait depends on its own conditions. In the meantime, President Trump disputed reports claiming he had provided sanctions relief or granted access to frozen Iranian assets.

For market participants, the coming U.S. response is the primary event risk. If talks to reopen Hormuz advance, oil supply worries may subside and prices could soften; a breakdown in negotiations, however, would likely bring back the risk premium. At the 7:50 a.m. ET reading, crude fell 0.68% to around $91.97. This price action highlights the need to monitor oil's reaction to each diplomatic headline instead of presuming a breakthrough has occurred.

Treasury yields moved lower in the latest update:

• The 2-year yield fell to 4.9097%, down 1.43 basis points.
• The 5-year yield declined to 5.050%, 2.00 basis points lower.
• The 10-year yield dropped to 5.2131%, a decrease of 2.89 basis points.
• The 30-year yield slipped to 5.5398%, down 2.22 basis points.

Futures on U.S. indices point to a firmer open following yesterday's losses:

• Dow futures are up 113 points.
• S&P futures are up 21 points.
• Nasdaq 100 futures have gained 130 points.

In the previous session, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.08% and the S&P lost 0.77%.

European equities are also trading in positive territory this session:

• Germany's DAX is up 0.92%.
• France's CAC 40 has risen 0.30%.
• The UK's FTSE 100 is ahead 0.35%.
• Italy's FTSE MIB has climbed 0.94%.

Across commodities, crude remains down 0.68% at roughly $91.97. Gold has gained 1.00% to around $4,154, while silver is up 0.62% near $60.98. Bitcoin has climbed 1.10% to about $84,382.

What's coming up on the North American calendar?

Traders will have multiple chances to evaluate the dollar's initial gains through upcoming data releases and Fed appearances:

• At 8:30 a.m. ET, Canada's July monthly GDP is due, with a forecast of 0.0% following a prior 0.3%.
• At 9:00 a.m. ET, U.S. home-price figures arrive, including the Case-Shiller 20-city index.
• At 10:00 a.m. ET, September U.S. consumer confidence is expected at 89.2, compared with 89.4 previously.
• At 10:00 a.m. ET, August JOLTS job openings are forecast at 7.225 million, versus 7.271 million earlier. This report offers insight into labor demand ahead of Friday's employment data.

The slate of Federal Reserve speakers is also full. Fed governor Michelle Bowman will deliver opening remarks at 11:00 a.m. ET. Fed governor Michael Barr follows at noon, followed by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee at 1:00 p.m., St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem at 1:30 p.m., New York Fed President John Williams at 2:00 p.m., and Fed governor Christopher Waller at 3:00 p.m. Waller's scheduled address focuses on payments, making any monetary-policy commentary from him less likely.

The order of events is important for traders. An unexpected reading in job openings or confidence could shift yields and the dollar early on. Afterwards, Fed speakers will have numerous opportunities to address the wider inflation and labor market picture. It's advisable to set key levels ahead of these releases: a news headline might trigger a reaction, but the persistence of price beyond a technical threshold will reveal which side is in charge.