Dollar mixed, oil down on US–Iran talks, Nasdaq futures point up

A mixed US dollar, along with declines in Treasury yields and oil, marks the start of the trading week. A split is also visible in US stock futures, with the Nasdaq 100 pointing higher and the Dow index indicating a drop.

Al-Arabiya reports that a potential breakthrough in US–Iran talks could be announced this week. China's overnight data releases exceeded forecasts for growth, industrial output, and retail sales. Canada's CPI report is the main scheduled release.

Developments in US–Iran negotiations are placing oil in the spotlight.

InvestingLive reports that negotiators are working to narrow their differences and secure concessions on both sides.

Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week is still on the table, with conditions that include relief from the US blockade and oil sanctions. The sequencing of steps remains a sticking point: Washington wants nuclear concessions addressed first, while Tehran seeks immediate relief and a focus on maritime security.

This is a potentially significant development, though market participants have heard optimistic headlines before. An actual agreement, along with its implementation, would carry substantially more weight than another signal of progress.

WTI crude futures for December delivery are trading at $98.20, reflecting a decline of $0.82, or 0.83%.

A sustained drop in oil prices would help relieve energy-driven inflation pressures for financial markets. This would be a welcome shift following last week's hotter-than-expected US CPI and PPI data. For the time being, the next headline is capable of shifting the market tone rapidly.

The dollar's performance is mixed across major pairs.

It has weakened against the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars, as well as sterling, while strengthening against the euro, yen, and franc.

• EURUSD: 1.1228, representing a 0.10% decline, with the USD higher.

• USDJPY: 158.11, up 0.08%, with the USD higher.

• GBPUSD: 1.3338, up 0.08%, with the USD lower.

• USDCHF: 0.8245, up 0.07%, with the USD higher.

• USDCAD: 1.4075, down 0.44%, with the USD lower.

• AUDUSD: 0.6989, up 0.65%, with the USD lower.

• NZDUSD: 0.5670, up 0.35%, with the USD lower.

The Australian dollar notched the largest advance against the greenback, while the euro saw the steepest decline. The AUDUSD pair climbed on Friday after a weaker-than-expected jobs report on Thursday drove it to its lowest level since early July, followed by a bounce.

China's data surpassed expectations, though property and investment continue to lag.

China's overnight economic release offered several encouraging figures:

• GDP growth came in at 4.5% year over year, compared to an expected 4.4% and a prior 4.3%.

• Industrial production registered 5.5% year over year, versus an expected 5.4% and a previous 5.2%.

• Retail sales hit 1.1% year over year, versus an expected 0.5% and a prior 0.4%.

• The unemployment rate stood at 5.2%, compared to an expected and prior 5.3%.

• Fixed-asset investment declined 7.2% year to date, against an expected drop of 7.3%.

• New-home prices fell 0.14% month over month, following a prior decline of 0.17%.

Growth, production, and consumer spending all exceeded forecasts, while the unemployment rate edged down. Still, declining home values and shrinking investment figures suggest the economic recovery remains uneven.

The stronger-than-expected data from China provides a supportive context for the Australian dollar, reflecting the close trade ties between the two countries.

Which currency pairs have the most room for movement today?

The range monitor tracks each pair's trading activity against its 22-day average range, covering roughly a month of trading. Percentages shown are rounded:

• EURUSD has moved 53 pips against a 65-pip average, so around 82% is done.

• GBPUSD has moved 39 pips against a 73-pip average, so around 53% is done.

• USDJPY has moved 58 pips against a 100-pip average, so around 58% is done.

• USDCHF has moved 21 pips against a 52-pip average, so around 40% is done.

• USDCAD has moved 59 pips against a 62-pip average, so around 95% is done.

• AUDUSD has moved 41 pips against a 48-pip average, so around 85% is done.

• NZDUSD has moved 23 pips against a 43-pip average, so around 53% is done.

USDCHF retains the most potential for further movement relative to its typical range. GBPUSD, USDJPY, and NZDUSD also show room for significant extension.

USD/CAD has already approached a full day's typical range ahead of the Canadian CPI data. This does not rule out additional movement, but it suggests traders should note the distance already traveled.

The average range is simply for context. It is neither a ceiling on movement nor a guarantee that the quieter pairs will expand their activity.

US stock index futures are showing leadership from the technology sector.

Stock futures indicate a divided start for US indices:

• The Dow industrial average futures are trading down 160 points.

• S&P 500 futures are up 30.56 points.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 282 points.

The Nasdaq is spearheading the recovery following last week's declines. The Dow's retreat highlights that gains are not evenly spread across the major indices.

Yields on US Treasuries are declining.

A broad decline is visible across the US Treasury yield curve:

• The 2-year yield stands at 4.7145%, off by 2.15 basis points.

• The 5-year yield stands at 4.8771%, off by 2.19 basis points.

• The 10-year yield stands at 5.0771%, off by 2.09 basis points.

• The 30-year yield stands at 5.4220%, off by 1.50 basis points.

The decline in yields offers a more favorable environment for rate-sensitive growth equities, which aligns with the Nasdaq's comparative strength seen this morning.

Moves in gold, silver, and bitcoin.

• Spot gold is at $4,169.73, an advance of $4.31, or 0.10%.

• Spot silver is at $57.64, an advance of $0.67, or 1.17%.

• Bitcoin is at $82,183, a decline of $633, or 0.76%.

Silver is outperforming gold this morning, while Bitcoin is heading lower even as broader US equity futures gain.

Today's North American market calendar.

Canada will release its inflation report at 8:30 AM ET:

• Headline CPI, month over month, is expected at 0.2%, compared to -0.1% prior.

• Median CPI, year over year, is expected at 2.0%, matching the previous figure.

• Trimmed CPI, year over year, is expected at 1.9%, matching the previous figure.

• Common CPI, year over year, is expected at 2.6%, matching the previous figure.

• Core CPI, month over month, was previously at 0.1%; no consensus estimate is shown.

The Canadian dollar is already stronger heading into the release. The core inflation readings will help decide whether that move receives a further boost or whether traders opt to take profits.

At 10:00 AM ET:

• US NAHB Housing Market Index: 31 expected versus 32 previously.

This report offers additional insight into builder confidence amid ongoing challenges posed by high borrowing costs.