Early 2026 US Midterm Calls Favor Democrats as Bitcoin Dips, Futures Slide

Early US midterm results leaned Democratic, with Bitcoin (BTC) edging lower and S&P 500 futures down 0.6%. In Georgia and Virginia, Democratic Senators Jon Ossoff and Mark Warner emerged victorious, respectively.

Kalshi, a prediction market, assigned Democrats roughly 90% odds of winning the Senate, and S&P 500 futures surrendered their earlier advance. A Democratic sweep, traders worry, could slow data center expansion and hurt artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.

How Are Futures Responding to the US Midterm Results?

Nasdaq-100 futures slid 0.5%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 252 points, also 0.5%.

Kalshi assigned Democrats a 97% probability of winning the House, a result that markets had largely priced in.

Investors fear a Democratic majority could impose nationwide limits on data centers. AI stocks had already retreated in recent weeks over concerns about slowing spending.

Futures on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of anticipated volatility, rose to 20.90.

After third-quarter earnings came in above expectations, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped double digits in the early after-hours session. That gain was later trimmed to roughly 4%.

A Democratic sweep might not weigh on the broader market, said Philip Blancato, chief market strategist at Osaic.

“In that scenario of a Democratic sweep when there’s less funding for AI or less support for data centers, I think the rest of the market will do quite well because of how strong earnings have been.”

Philip Blancato, Osaic chief market strategist, quoted by CNBC

Will Bitcoin Repeat Its Post-Midterm Track Record?

Bitcoin was trading modestly lower on the day.

CNBC's data showed the S&P 500 rose after each of the 11 midterms from 1982 to 2022. A year later, the average gain was 13.7%.

Binance Research data put Bitcoin's average gain after past midterms at 54%, as noted in earlier coverage of Bitcoin midterm election volatility. Only a small number of elections were included.

Should that pattern hold, the election-night decline could fade. A decisive Senate result that reshapes AI and tax policy would make that forecast wrong.

Control of Congress could decide the rules on data centers and tax incentives. Those rules feed into the AI trade, which helps shape equity risk appetite and could guide crypto prices.