Peck Says Anthropic IPO May Revive Tech Sentiment Amid AI Slump

Anthropic's IPO could serve as a tech sector catalyst, according to New York Angels board member Bob Peck. He noted that after Alphabet's record selloff, investors are turning to the Anthropic IPO for a benchmark on AI valuations.

Large investors are reportedly pushing for Anthropic to be priced at the lower end of the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range. According to Peck, the eventual price could set a benchmark for hyperscalers—cloud companies valued between $2 trillion and $4 trillion.

Could a Single Public Listing Resolve the AI Valuation Dispute?

Speaking on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street," Peck said tech sentiment is a bit more cautious compared with six months ago. He attributed Alphabet's drop to poor AI monetization, Intel's decline to weaker PC demand, and Apple's fall to margin pressures.

On October 29, Alphabet dropped more than 12%, marking its worst day ever and wiping out approximately $500 billion in market value.

Meanwhile, Anthropic's S-1 filing shows a net revenue retention of about 900%, meaning existing customers spent nine times what they did the previous year. By comparison, enterprise software companies Palantir and Snowflake reported figures of 157% and 126%, respectively.

Nevertheless, PitchBook senior analyst Harrison Rolfes predicts the 900% figure will decline quickly because it comes from a small initial base, according to a Morningstar report.

Does the Mathematics Justify a $1.5 Trillion Valuation?

Peck stated that his valuation calculations are partly based on analyst estimates for xAI, the AI division that SpaceX took over in February.

“I think the valuation numbers make sense based on the back of the envelope, math you’ve seen me do.”

Bob Peck, New York Angels board member, on CNBC

Jay Ritter, who leads the University of Florida's IPO Initiative, noted that only 14 out of 4,110 IPOs between 1980 and 2024 were priced above 40 times trailing sales, as Fortune reported.

Investors who bought those 14 at the offer price underperformed the overall market by an average of 15.4% over three years.

Nonetheless, at a $1.5 trillion valuation, Anthropic would be trading at roughly 43 times trailing sales. The company's amended IPO filing also revealed that compute costs increased 77% in the third quarter while revenue grew 47%.

OpenAI, which Peck predicts will go public in 2027, has already reduced its funding goal from $30 billion to $20 billion. As a result, Anthropic's eventual IPO price could serve as a reference point for subsequent AI listings.