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ECB leaves rates unchanged as Lagarde announces February exit

ECB kept its main rates unchanged, with Lagarde set to leave in February. Markets now see a 65% chance of a hike in December.

29/10/2026 14:125 min read

Earlier today, the big news came from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who announced she will depart in February.

In April, she told Bloomberg TV: "When there is big clouds on the horizon, the captain does not leave the ship— and this captain is not going to leave the ship, because I see clouds."

It appears, then, that she no longer sees those clouds.

In any case, the key headlines from the decision are as follows:

  • The main refinancing rate remains at 2.65%, matching the 2.65% that was expected.
  • The deposit rate stands at 2.50%, in line with the 2.50% forecast.
  • The marginal lending facility rate is unchanged at 2.90%, as anticipated.
  • Energy prices are still moving higher, the ECB stated, pointing to upside risks for the inflation outlook and downside risks for growth.
  • Underlying inflation has remained broadly stable so far, and wages have not yet shown a material response.
  • The ECB is well placed to navigate uncertainty.
  • The ECB is not committing itself in advance to any particular policy path.
  • The ECB says it is ready to adjust all of its instruments, within its mandate, to ensure inflation settles at the 2% target.

Traders had priced in a 13% chance of a surprise hike at this month's meeting, but that probability climbs to 65% for December. The euro was 21 pips lower at 1.1131 ahead of the decision, hovering close to the year's lows. The immediate market response to the decision has been minimal.

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