ETH Exchange Supply at 15.5M Low as MVRV Turns Positive

The amount of Ethereum (ETH) held on exchanges has dropped to about 15.5 million coins, a multi-year low. Meanwhile, the MVRV momentum flipped to positive territory during late August.

ETH is trading around $2,464, having declined 0.87% in the past day. The cryptocurrency holds above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2,438.85, a level that capped rallies from March through May.

ETH Exchange Supply Reaches Multi-Year Low

Data from Glassnode indicates that the total ETH held across all exchanges stands at roughly 15.5 million coins. This is a decrease of about 38% from the May 2023 peak near 25.2 million. The bulk of the reduction came after June 2025, when balances were still close to 21.5 million.

Yet the trend alone has proven to be a weak timing tool. Exchange balances declined steadily from September 2025 through June 2026. Over the same period, ETH slid from about $4,850 to roughly $1,550.

The shrinking supply, therefore, appears to be a condition rather than a signal. It removes sellable float without providing directional guidance.

MVRV Momentum Turns Positive for First Time Since November 2025

That missing direction may now be present. Ethereum’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is near 1.05, above its 160-day moving average of about 0.88.

The crossover occurred in the second half of August. It ended a negative momentum phase that lasted roughly nine months from November 2025.

The moving average has stopped falling and started to curve higher. Historically, that shift separates durable regime changes from brief whipsaws. Still, the signals remain about three weeks old.

ETH Price Outlook Hinges on $2,438 Level

ETH is currently at $2,464.81, down 0.87% on the day, with a market capitalization near $300.8 billion. The price sits just above the 0.618 retracement at $2,438.85. That zone acted as resistance from mid-March to mid-May and now appears to provide support.

Volume has declined each week since the late-August surge. The Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) is also near the floor of its range. Compression of that kind usually precedes expansion, though it does not indicate direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads about 60, cooling from roughly 80 in late August.

A sustained hold could open the 0.5 retracement at $2,919.89, about 18% higher. Conversely, a loss of $2,438.85 leaves little structure until $1,980. That gap makes the current outlook unusually binary.

These two on-chain readings supply the directional lean that compression alone cannot. Ethereum has spent over a year losing exchange float without reward. The difference now is that valuation momentum has turned alongside it. A drop back below the 160-day average would remove that support.