Timmer Questions 60/40 Portfolio Revival Amid Weakening Stock-Bond Link
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer questions the 60/40 portfolio comeback as higher Treasury yields sustain a positive stock-bond correlation.
European markets saw gains as oil prices and bond yields eased following the Fed and BOE rate decisions.
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The day after the Federal Reserve's decision, markets appeared to catch their breath as oil and bond yields eased.
Brent crude dropped more than 2% to $103.40 after Saudi Arabia offered extra crude cargoes to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfers near Oman’s Sohar port. That move is softening the effect on global supply.
Ten-year Treasury yields edged down to 4.975% as traders assessed the Fed's decision and the inflation outlook.
Even so, oil remains above $100 and yields stay near 5%. The improved risk sentiment appears to be a relief rally rather than a genuine risk-on shift, so caution is warranted.
The dollar edged lower, pushing USD/JPY back under 156. Sterling underperformed after the Bank of England held rates at 3.75% as widely expected, with a 6-3 vote. Pill, Mann, and Greene dissented, favoring a hike to 4%. GBP/USD slipped from 1.3405 to 1.3360 on repositioning, as markets had priced about a 30% chance of a rate increase.
European equities rose modestly, and US futures advanced as investors embraced the post-Fed relief. Gold climbed 1.4% to $4,323, with traders expecting a stronger rebound later in the week.
With the Fed decision behind, attention shifts to bonds to see if yields will continue their upward push this week.
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Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer questions the 60/40 portfolio comeback as higher Treasury yields sustain a positive stock-bond correlation.
The Bank of England is expected to raise Bank Rate to 4% on Thursday, its first hike of this cycle, with inflation at 3.5%.
Japan's services PMI rose to 51.7 in October, but the composite PMI slipped to 52.1, a five-month low, as hiring slowed and cost pressures persisted.
September data showed Australia's goods surplus at about A$2.8 billion, a seven-month peak, with LNG and metals exports up and gold imports down sharply.