Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%-4% in October 2026; Two Dissent

The Federal Open Market Committee released its full statement following the October 2026 rate decision.

By a 10-2 vote, the FOMC approved the following policy stance:

The target range for the federal funds rate will stay at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, the Committee decided, consistent with its dual mandate. The policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system continues.

Economic activity is expanding strongly. Although uncertainty remains elevated—partly due to geopolitical developments—domestic spending has proven resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains are matching workforce growth, and the unemployment rate has seen little change.

Inflation remains elevated. The Committee will gather more information before determining the appropriate policy stance to ensure a timely return of inflation to its 2 percent goal. Price stability remains the Committee's objective.

Dissenting were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who wanted to raise the federal funds rate target range by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

What changed between September and October?

The FOMC approved the following statement by a 12-0? Actually 10-2 vote:

This time the Committee opted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, rather than raising it. The policy of ample reserves remains.

Economic activity is described as expanding at a strong pace (previously solid). Uncertainty remains elevated due partly to geopolitical developments, while domestic spending stays resilient. Productivity and capital investment are both robust. Job gains keep pace with workforce growth, and the unemployment rate is little changed.

Inflation is still elevated. The statement now says more information will help the Committee determine the appropriate stance to ensure a timely return to the 2 percent goal, rather than saying today's action supports that. The commitment to price stability remains.

Those dissenting were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who again preferred a 1/4 percentage point hike at this meeting.

Changes from just before the decision to 2:12:

Forex

• EURUSD: 1.1135 → 1.1137, up 2 pips.
• USDJPY: 158.27 → 158.26, down 1 pip.
• GBPUSD: 1.3297 → 1.3304, up 7 pips.
• USDCHF: 0.8295 → 0.8297, up 2 pips.
• USDCAD:1.4036, unchanged.
• AUDUSD: 0.7035 → 0.7036, up 1 pip.
• NZDUSD:0.5619, unchanged.

U.S. Treasury yields

• 2-year: 4.7702% → 4.7743%, up 0.41 basis points.
• 3-year: 4.8356% → 4.8428%, up 0.72 basis points.
• 5-year: 4.8764% → 4.8871%, up 1.07 basis points.
• 7-year: 4.9374% → 4.9508%, up 1.34 basis points.
• 10-year: 5.0196% → 5.0341%, up 1.45 basis points.
• 20-year: 5.3697% → 5.3842%, up 1.45 basis points.
• 30-year: 5.3178% → 5.3307%, up 1.29 basis points.

U.S. stocks

• Dow: 52,566.27 → 52,485.26, down 81.01 points.
• S&P 500: 7,744.33 → 7,731.08, down 13.25 points.
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,479.73 → 26,449.29, down 30.44 points.
• Russell 2000: 2,821.82 → 2,816.80, down 5.02 points.
• Nasdaq 100: Currently 29,674.34;