Warsh: More data needed before deciding next policy steps

• Third-quarter GDP probably came in above 3%, helped by strong consumer spending
• Business activity is likely expanding at roughly a double-digit rate
• Capital expenditure remains at historically elevated levels
• The labor market picture is positive
• The committee thinks additional information will help determine the right policy moves
• Some households and businesses have seen tighter credit conditions
• I can't and won't call financial conditions tight
• Inflation is still running too high
• Energy and related costs have ticked up again over the past few weeks
• Our task is to keep inflation from spreading
• We've demonstrated our willingness to act
• In 2027 there will be eight meetings, but one of them won't include a vote
• In 2028 there will also be eight meetings, with two non-voting sessions
• This change should allow more focus on longer-term considerations

The tone comes across as hawkish, which matches what markets have already priced in, with 22 basis points expected for the December 9 meeting.

Q&A:

The first question asked why not hike today, and he took a long victory lap (for some reason), then said:

• Inflation expectations have moved in the right direction
• I feel good about the indicators
• The upcoming period offers a lot of information
• I'm encouraged by the progress we've seen
• The broad view is that the monetary measures we've taken have "worked some"

The US dollar weakened after Warsh's remarks, partly because he's indicating the single rate hike has worked or is working.