Fed Minutes Show Most Officials See Another Hike; Bitcoin Reacts as Stocks, Gold Stay Flat

The Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting minutes, released Wednesday, revealed that a majority of its officials believed another interest rate increase this year would probably be appropriate. On the release, US equities and gold barely moved. Bitcoin, however, responded differently.

The minutes document the meeting where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's rate-setting panel, raised its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. This 12-0 vote was the Fed's first rate increase since 2023.

What the Fed Minutes Say About the Next Rate Hike

According to the minutes, a "most" of participants judged another rate increase in 2026 as probably appropriate. A "some" noted that inflation risks had shifted further toward prices climbing more than anticipated.

Several officials assessed the current rate as not restrictive, or only mildly restrictive. In the Fed's terminology, a restrictive stance means borrowing costs are high enough to curb spending and cool inflation.

🇺🇸 Key takeaways from today's Fed Minutes:

• All 19 officials supported September's rate hike
• Most expect another hike in 2026
• Inflation risks remain tilted higher
• Many saw risk-management reasons to raise rates
• Several see rates as only mildly restrictive

— CryptoGoos (@cryptogoos) October 7, 2026

A number of participants also said the extent of the artificial intelligence buildout — the surge in spending on data centers and chips — kept surprising them.

Why Stocks and Gold Barely Moved on the Fed Minutes

Within the first five minutes after the 2 p.m. ET release, the S&P 500 index of 500 major US companies stood at roughly 7,801, a decline of 0.02%, according to TradingView data.

Gold remained around $4,110 per ounce. It had reached approximately $4,125 about 45 minutes before the minutes' release.

The document contained little that was new.

The expectation of one additional hike had already been made public on September 16, when the Fed's projections indicated the median official anticipated one more quarter-point increase by the end of the year. Sixteen out of 18 officials projected at least one such move.

The minutes also come before the September employment report. That month, employers added roughly 29,000 jobs versus expectations of nearly 90,000, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%.

Traders had already reduced the probability of an October rate hike to about 20%, down from approximately 55% a week earlier. Banks like J.P. Morgan anticipate one more increase in December instead.

Why Bitcoin Was the Only Market That Reacted

On Binance, bitcoin (BTC) climbed from roughly $83,159 to $83,306 within the first five minutes following the release, a gain of 0.18%. That represented the biggest shift among the three asset classes.

The uptick came after a decline. Bitcoin had been trading near $83,600 at around 12:30 p.m. ET before dropping to roughly $83,050 shortly before 2 p.m. ET, based on the same data.

Unlike equities, bitcoin trades 24/7 and had already moved lower heading into the release. Rate decisions have been influencing crypto flows: in the week after the September hike, investors directed $3.55 billion into crypto funds, the largest weekly crypto inflows for 2026.

What Comes Before the October 28 Fed Decision

Public comments from officials have diverged since the meeting. New York Fed President John Williams described one more rate increase this year as reasonable. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan argued that at least two might be required. Governor Michelle Bowman stated she sees no pressing need to act.

Long-term Treasury yields recently reached their highest level since 2002, a development linked to the $400 billion selloff in metals earlier on Wednesday.

The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, just days before the US midterm elections. September consumer price data, set for release on October 14, will be the final major inflation report before that decision.