Fed speaker calendar heats up ahead of October meeting

The pressure surrounding the Federal Reserve's October gathering has intensified considerably.

Wednesday's US CPI release came in strong across the board, with core readings that tend to be steadier than the energy-influenced headline also running hot. Bond traders wasted no time adjusting, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield up 15 basis points to 4.94% for the session.

Fed funds futures now show an even split between a rate increase and a pause this month. It's also worth remembering that the central bank enters its quiet period on Saturday.

That gives officials only three days to steer expectations if they want to avoid going into the meeting with elevated stakes. The day kicks off with Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaking at 1:30 pm ET. I appreciate Barkin's measured approach, and he tends to reflect the central bank's mainstream thinking, making his comments especially significant. However, we already heard from Barkin earlier this week, and he offered little in the way of direction.

A notable recent remark from him came in late September, when he likened the current cycle to the mid-1990s adjustment. Barkin was drawing a parallel to an easing period then, when Greenspan reduced rates by 75 basis points over seven months, wrapping up in late 1995. Taken directly, that analogy would suggest a more dovish stance than what markets are pricing in. He also said he wasn't ready to make an overheating argument, but noted the economy is strengthening rather than weakening, and that businesses feel they have pricing power.

I wouldn't rule out a hawkish tilt from him, but he's typically not the one to make the first bold move.

Up next is Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who is scheduled to appear on Yahoo Finance at 3 pm ET. He's straightforward, but we've heard plenty from him, and he's been leaning hawkish for some time. All the same, he hasn't been aggressively pushing for hikes, so any incremental shift in that direction today could be meaningful.

Tomorrow brings the top official, with a 11:30 pm ET 'fireside chat' featuring Warsh at the IMF meetings. We'll see whether he holds to his stance of avoiding guidance or lets something slip; my suspicion is he'll need to give a nod one way or another. Earlier in the day, we'll also hear from Hammack, who has grown increasingly hawkish.

Friday's schedule currently shows no Fed speakers, but we'll keep an eye out for any updates.

On the data front, PPI and retail sales are also due tomorrow, and those will be important.