German state CPI data scheduled for release today

Summer in Europe is winding down, but price pressures remain elevated. French and Spanish data on Friday already indicated that, and Germany is expected to follow suit on Tuesday.

Headline annual inflation is forecast to reach 3.0%, up from 2.8% in the prior reading. The EU-harmonised measure is seen at 3.1%, also from 2.8%. Both monthly figures are projected to increase by 0.3% in August compared with July.

Core annual inflation remains the key metric to watch. It stood at 2.4% in July, with services inflation still hovering near 3% despite a gradual slowdown.

A major concern is that a rebound in energy prices could eventually push inflation higher across broader categories. The longer the US-Iran conflict continues, the greater the likelihood of that outcome.

The ECB is already set to move in September, so today's data is unlikely to materially affect market pricing or the near-term outlook. The focus is on whether price pressures persist into Q4 2026 and whether that will require further ECB action after next month's shift to a mildly restrictive stance.

Today's schedule is as follows:

• 0800 GMT - North Rhine Westphalia
• 0800 GMT - Hesse
• 0800 GMT - Bavaria
• 0800 GMT - Baden Wuerttemberg
• 0800 GMT - Saxony
• 1200 GMT - Germany national preliminary figures

Note that the releases may not always be exactly on schedule and could come out a bit earlier or later.