Gold and bond moves from Netherlands, France fuel debate on US asset safety

The Dutch central bank's decision to move gold reserves out of North America, while small in the context of global holdings, takes on greater significance when combined with other recent actions. Alongside the Netherlands' gold shift, France had earlier repatriated its gold, and Norway's sovereign wealth fund has signalled plans to reduce its Treasury exposure from 70% to 50% of its bond portfolio. Together, these steps suggest an early-stage diversification trend among traditional holders of US assets — one that could have meaningful implications for Treasury demand and the dollar's reserve status if Germany, the largest foreign holder of gold stored in the US, were to follow suit. Central banks themselves have mostly avoided citing confiscation concerns as a reason, instead pointing to liquidity and crisis readiness, while outside analysts and economists have drawn a sharper connection to the unpredictability of Donald Trump's presidency. Whether that gap between official explanations and outside analysis narrows or widens will likely be more telling than any single country's move.

A quiet stream of central banks shifting gold and bonds out of the US is beginning to resemble a trend, and attention is now turning to whether Germany, the biggest holder, eventually joins.

Key points:

• The Dutch central bank moved gold out of New York, citing "geopolitical unrest," after a comparable step by France earlier this year
• Norway's $2.4 trillion oil fund has proposed cutting its Treasury holdings and reducing government-bond exposure from 70% to 50%, a fund spokesperson confirmed
• A leading US economist told MarketWatch the moves reflect "the irrationality of the president" rather than a targeted policy threat
• The same economist assessed the probability of the US blocking gold outflows as low, but said central banks are not wrong to consider the risk until US policy becomes clearer after Trump's second term ends in January 2029
• The economist said he understood the Dutch decision to move gold, even though he sees the underlying risk as unlikely to materialise
• The wider backdrop cited includes Trump's tariff dispute, the January capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, February's start of the US-Iran war, late-August plans to take control of over 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil, plus tensions with NATO allies, a push for Greenland's resources, and an escalating US-Canada trade conflict

The Dutch central bank relocated gold from New York, mirroring an earlier action by France, in what a senior US economist told MarketWatch highlights a growing tension between America's role as a financial safe haven and Trump's use of economic and military pressure to pursue his goals. The Dutch central bank cited "geopolitical unrest" as the reason, while Norway's $2.4 trillion oil fund has separately proposed reducing its Treasury holdings and cutting overall government-bond exposure from 70% to 50%, a spokesperson for the fund said.

The economist argued that the main driver is less a specific policy measure than what he described as the president's unpredictability, citing Trump's recent threat to cut trade ties with countries running a surplus against the US unless the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates as a case in point. He raised the possibility that Trump could abruptly decide that gold stored in New York should not be permitted to leave, though he conceded the chances of that appear remote. Central banks, he said, are nonetheless justified in considering that risk, at least until the policy outlook becomes clearer after Trump's second term ends in January 2029. Asked whether the Dutch decision to move gold was prudent in that context, he said he could understand it.

The list of developments cited alongside the gold and bond movements is extensive: Trump's sweeping tariff war that rattled markets last year, the January detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the February outbreak of the US-Iran war, and plans announced in late August to seize control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. In addition, there has been ongoing friction with European and NATO allies, a campaign focused on Greenland and its natural resources, and a worsening trade dispute with Canada.

Notably, the central banks involved have largely not described their own actions in terms of confiscation risk. Germany, which holds the largest portion of any country's gold in New York — around a third of its total reserves — has faced growing domestic political pressure to bring it home but has so far maintained that the New York Federal Reserve remains a dependable storage partner. Whether that stance holds, or Germany eventually follows the lead of the Netherlands and France, will probably be the clearest indicator of how far this trend could go.