Gold may rebound in the near term as growth and strike fears ease; FOMC looms

Gold kept sliding on Friday after U.S. PMI data topped forecasts, easing concerns about growth for now. Bullion was also pressured by expectations of possible U.S. strikes on Iran over the weekend, although those expectations ultimately proved unfounded.

Most of the late-week decline appeared to stem from liquidations aimed at covering stock-market losses, a pattern similar to the one seen in 2025. Real yields, the primary driver of gold prices, actually moved lower, so a short-term pullback remains possible even though the fundamental pressures on the metal persist.

The bigger picture is unchanged, with the Middle East crisis still adding to inflation while dragging on global growth. This week's attention centers on Wednesday's FOMC decision and on developments in the Middle East.

Markets broadly expect the Fed to hold rates steady, meaning an unexpected increase would trigger a sharp selloff in gold. No Dot Plot is due at this meeting, so the focus falls on Fed Chair Warsh. Because he tends to avoid forward guidance, he is unlikely to say much, though traders will be alert for any hawkish surprise.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

gold (CFD contract) is moving toward the key support zone near 3,885, where a major upward trendline adds confluence. Should the price reach that zone, buyers would be expected to step in, keep their defined risk below the trendline, and position for a rally to fresh record highs. Sellers, meanwhile, will watch for a break lower to add to bearish bets toward 3,500 next.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

Bearish momentum has faded. A pullback into the 4,070 resistance would likely bring sellers back in, with a defined risk above that level, as they keep targeting the 3,885 support. Buyers, for their part, will want to see a move above resistance to extend the rebound into the downward trendline.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

A minor support zone sits near 3,980, a level that has turned price away several times. Sellers will look for a break lower to expand bearish bets toward 3,885, while buyers are likely to step in at that level again, keeping defined risk below support and aiming for a pullback into the 4,070 resistance.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Tomorrow brings the U.S. Consumer Confidence report. The FOMC rate decision follows on Wednesday. Thursday features the U.S. GDP report, the U.S. PCE and the latest U.S. Jobless Claims figures. The week wraps up Friday with the U.S. Employment Cost Index.