Tehran awaits US reply on Hormuz deal as crude rises
Iran expects a US response today on its Hormuz proposal; oil prices climb again.
9 min ago7 min read
Gold retreats to key $4,300 support ahead of US data and Iran news
Gold slipped to the key $4,300 support zone as Trump dampened de-escalation hopes; eyes on US PMIs and Iran talks.
23/09/2026 10:518 min read
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Gold staged a recovery on Tuesday after two reports reinforced expectations that tensions in the Middle East could ease and the conflict might end sooner. This helped push crude oil prices to fresh lows, which reduced concerns about inflation and interest rate increases.
However, those expectations cooled after Trump reiterated that the US would negotiate with Iran after November's elections. Treasury yields and the dollar climbed following his comments, putting pressure on the precious metal.
Attention remains fixed on US-Iran developments, given that oil prices have been the primary influence on inflation and rate expectations. Economic data will also matter, given the current pricing in markets.
When positioning and market expectations become stretched, even a modest data shift can trigger a sharp reversal. If US figures begin to miss expectations, forecasts of aggressive rate hikes could ease, providing further support to gold. The first test comes today with the release of the Flash US PMIs.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, gold (CFD contract) has retreated all the way to the key support zone near the 4,300 level. Buyers are expected to step in around that support with a defined risk below it, aiming for a rally to the 4,510 level. Sellers, meanwhile, will look for a break lower to target a drop to the 3,885 level.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4-hour chart, a minor downward trendline defines the pullback into the support zone. If the price bounces and approaches the trendline, sellers may lean on it with a defined risk above it, positioning for a break below the support. Buyers, conversely, will want to see the price break higher to increase bullish bets toward the 4,510 level.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1-hour chart, buyers will seek long positions around the support and on a break of the downward trendline, while sellers will wait for a break below the support or a pullback to the trendline to target new lows. The red lines define today's average daily range.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today's Flash US PMIs are due, and tomorrow brings the Trump-Xi meeting. The focus will also remain on US-Iran developments.
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