Michael Burry Shifts Focus From AI Stocks to Copper Market

Copper futures hit an intraday record of $6.95 per pound on September 22, closing at a fresh high of $6.92. The milestone came the day after Michael Burry revealed a copper miner as his indirect play on artificial intelligence.

The rally has picked up pace since mid-September, driven by Chinese buyers building inventories ahead of holidays.

Copper Outperforms Gold and Silver in 2026

Copper has risen almost 20% year-to-date in 2026 and over 46% in the last 12 months. In contrast, gold has edged up just 0.02% this year, while silver has dropped 8.5%.

Over the past year, though, silver has surged 49.2% and gold 15.47%. Earlier this month, copper declined nearly 8% following reports that a White House tariff plan had stalled. Still, the metal has struggled to regain strength amid global supply shortages.

Shanghai copper cathode inventories fell to 43,900 tonnes, the lowest level since 2023. Bloomberg cited weekly data from Shanghai Metals Market released Monday.

In London, cancelled warrants—metal booked to leave London Metal Exchange warehouses—rose to 122,150 tonnes on Tuesday. That accounts for 48% of metal on warrant, leaving 133,725 tonnes available, according to MINING.COM figures.

Burry’s Copper Bet Hinges on 18-Year Mine Gap

The tightening supply situation aligns with the case Burry made a day before the record. In a September 21 Substack post, he explained why he is largely skipping the AI stock rally.

“The house party is packed, pushing AI higher today, but I am largely ignoring the woo-hoos…I think of copper, and how it gets prettier as it ages,” he wrote.

His alternative to that crowded trade is Ero Copper, a Brazil-focused producer of copper and gold. Burry supported the pick with data from Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok.

Major copper discoveries—deposits containing at least 500,000 tonnes—have dropped from double digits annually to just one or two, with none recorded in 2025.

That discovery shortfall matters because building mines takes time. Slok noted that new deposits require roughly 18 years to reach production, while data centers add copper demand within two to three years.

Major copper discoveries fell from DOUBLE DIGITS a year to one or two, ZERO in 2025.

New deposits take ~18 YEARS to reach production, arriving in the 2040s.

WITH AI DRIVING COPPER DEMAND NOW, THIS IS MORE EVIDENCE OF A COMMODITY PRICE SUPERCYCLE.

— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) September 22, 2026

S&P Global’s longer-term outlook points in the same direction. The firm projects demand will rise 50% to 42 million tonnes by 2040. Without major adjustments, it forecasts a 10-million-tonne shortfall by then.

The near-term picture, however, is less clear. CRU had anticipated a global surplus of 639,000 tonnes for 2026, though by August it viewed the market as balanced at best. Burry also conceded that part of the rally stems from a temporary lull in supply.

Traders are still awaiting the White House tariff decision, which will determine whether US stockpiles reach buyers elsewhere.