Goldman slashes KOSPI target 25% to 9,000 from 12,000

Goldman Sachs has lowered its 12-month target for South Korea’s KOSPI by 25%, to 9,000 from 12,000. The revised goal puts the bank back where it was prior to its June 3 upgrade.

In the bank's view, chip valuations currently point to a 65% drop in 2027 industry earnings, a scenario it labels excessively pessimistic. That view faces its first test this week as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix report results.

Chip Profit Records Fail to Halt the Slide

Google Finance data put the KOSPI’s October 23 close at 5,550.30. The index’s 2026 advance has narrowed to 28.79%, down from about 116% at its June peak. Even with the reduction, the 9,000 target implies about 62% upside from the October 23 close.

Memory chipmakers represent about half of the index. Their shares have continued to fall even as profit guidance hit records. On October 8, Samsung issued guidance for third-quarter operating profit of about 107.4 trillion won, roughly 20% above the second quarter.

The shares lost 2.42% on that day, ending at 262,000 won, and have since declined about 18% to close on October 23 at 215,500 won.

SK Hynix ended at 1.277 million won, roughly 57% below its 52-week peak. The market appears to be pricing in a future slide in memory chip earnings.

Two additional signals are adding pressure on the index ahead of earnings.

A Technical Threshold and Underwater Retail Positions Add Pressure

Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity said the KOSPI is just barely holding to a possible head-and-shoulders neckline. A move beneath that level is commonly viewed as a warning of more losses. He put the line at roughly 5,451, about 2% under the October 23 close.

With the KOSPI index having led the boom higher earlier this year, it’s noteworthy that it is barely hanging on to a potential head-and-shoulders neckline.

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity), October 21, 2026

Retail investors are already sitting on losses. Their net purchases this year have an estimated average entry level near 6,550, according to Global Markets Investor. That puts the typical retail position about 15% in the red before leveraged bets are included.

Such pressures give added weight to what the chipmakers say next.

Results Week Will Test the 65% Assumption

SK Hynix holds its third-quarter earnings call on October 28. Samsung publishes full results with divisional numbers on October 29.

What executives say about 2027 pricing and orders may matter more than the third-quarter profit figures. That outlook, Goldman contends, should help show whether the market’s 65% assumption is too severe.