Hayes Warns AI Boom Will Overbuild, Crash, Then Bail Out Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes issued a caution regarding the artificial intelligence (AI) data centre construction spree. The former BitMEX CEO predicts the multi-trillion-dollar expansion will conclude with a collapse and a government rescue.

Why does this concern crypto? In Hayes's view, Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets will absorb the surplus liquidity generated afterwards.

Who bears the cost of the AI boom once the data centres start operating?

Forbes cited projections putting the US construction cost between $2.8 trillion by 2030 and $10.3 trillion by 2032. Credit platform Atrium stated that developers have secured no less than $1.3 trillion in debt so far.

Hayes characterised the expenditure as 'wasting multi-trillion dollars,' he told CNBC at the Gamma Prime Investing Conference in Singapore.

According to Hayes, the construction will result in low-cost, abundant computing power. He noted that SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are behind much of the demand, even though none is profitable.

Columbia economist Stijn van Nieuwerburgh has said that achieving a 10% return on that investment would call for $3.7 trillion in yearly revenue by 2032.

After construction is complete, infrastructure firms will demand payment for the computing capacity that AI companies agreed to purchase. Hayes anticipates this reckoning in late 2027 or 2028.

"If you study financial history and you study every single major technological rollout, it always is overbuilt. There always is a crash, and there always is a bailout," Hayes said.

Investors who set themselves up for bailouts stand to gain, he said, pointing to the post-2008 financial crisis period. Hayes has earlier claimed that US insurers are insolvent because of their AI debt exposure.

How does Bitcoin stand while the AI bailout bet is pending?

Hayes stated he is already certain which asset will emerge victorious.

"Thankfully, we have bitcoin and other crypto to soak up that excess liquidity, and so we know the asset that’s going to perform the best when the bailout comes," Hayes added.

Hayes's timeline points to late 2027 or 2028. This week, Bitcoin has been removing leverage from the market. On early Wednesday, $403.58 million in leveraged long crypto positions were liquidated in a single hour as Bitcoin dropped to around $83,800.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was at $84,045, having fallen 1.66% in the last day, according to BeInCrypto Markets. That places it roughly 33% under its record high of $126,080 reached in October 2025.

The AI surge has already affected a segment of Bitcoin's mining sector. Multiple ex-miners have moved into AI computing.

According to BTIG analyst Greg Lewis, nearly any firm with immediate power availability appears capable of securing deals. That shift has boosted the stocks. Lewis pointed to share-price increases at Cipher Digital and TeraWulf during the last year.

Riot Platforms, for example, inked a $9.1 billion, 20-year lease with Anthropic in August covering 191 megawatts in Texas. The firm also offloaded Bitcoin to finance the transition. Its reserves decreased from 15,680 BTC to 11,380 BTC in Q2.

If Hayes's anticipated collapse affects AI renters, how would miners such as Riot, which sold Bitcoin to construct facilities for them, fare? Hayes, however, stated that he is not in favour of shorting AI firms, describing it as 'not really a great investment opportunity.'