Oil dips on US-Iran deal optimism, but no concrete progress yet
Oil fell on US-Iran deal hopes, but a solid agreement remains elusive.
Iran's security council head Rezaei denies any US talks and says Strait of Hormuz conditions stand, as oil prices edge lower.
Comments from both Rubio and Rezaei suggest no agreement is imminent, indicating a potential return to economic warfare. This would see the US trying to isolate Iran while Iran, supported by Yemen's Houthis, seeks to lift oil prices.
The outcome hinges on Iran's ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. French President Macron has discussed improving insurance rates in the region. The volume of oil and other goods bypassing the Gulf through alternative routes remains uncertain.
Public statements from figures like Rezaei and Rubio may carry limited weight, however.
Rezaei stated:
His denial of negotiations is particularly hard to credit, given the numerous reports of flights between Iran and other nations.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 22 cents to $86.70, though the loss of diplomatic momentum suggests significant upside risk.
Rezaei serves as secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.
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Oil fell on US-Iran deal hopes, but a solid agreement remains elusive.
Gold edged higher but stayed below recent highs as markets awaited US CPI data and progress in US-Iran talks.
Gold futures show a breakout, retest, and continuation pattern on the 4-hour chart, suggesting buyers currently hold the advantage.
CITIC Securities says the Iran war risk is bounded, with the US blockade persisting and no exit likely, capping oil prices.