Oil dips on US-Iran deal optimism, but no concrete progress yet

Crude oil faced renewed selling pressure on Tuesday following encouraging headlines that boosted expectations of a deal between the United States and Iran.

Reports indicated that meetings between President Trump, Vice President Vance and the Qatari Prime Minister were constructive, with discussions centering on advancing negotiations with Iran.

Trump stated after his meeting with the Qatari PM that Qatar would prefer a peaceful resolution in Iran, though the US remains prepared to launch strikes if needed.

Additionally, it was reported that the US has permitted limited uranium enrichment inside Iran, a step Tehran has accepted, and a preliminary agreement on reducing enrichment levels appears likely.

It is worth noting that US military strikes remain a possibility, with Trump potentially opting for limited strikes against Iranian nuclear sites rather than wider attacks on energy infrastructure.

A concrete agreement in talks would likely trigger a substantial selloff, pushing oil prices back to pre-war levels in a short timeframe. Conversely, an escalation could fuel another rally driven by a higher risk premium, though such a move might prove temporary if Trump conducts limited strikes to maintain credibility before exiting the conflict.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily timeframe

On the daily chart, crude oil (CFD contract) slipped below the key 87.00 level on Tuesday, opening the path to fresh lows. Sellers moved in on the breakdown and are expected to continue targeting the 80.00 mark. Should the price reach that level, buyers are likely to step in with a defined risk below it, positioning for a push toward the 110.00 resistance. Sellers, meanwhile, will look for a further break to intensify bearish bets toward the 68.00 support area.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 hour timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, a downward trendline now defines the bearish momentum. In the event of a pullback, sellers are expected to emerge near the trendline, with a defined risk above it, continuing to target the 80.00 level. Buyers, on the other hand, will be looking for a breakout to the upside to build positions for a rally toward the 110.00 resistance.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour timeframe

On the 1-hour chart, a minor downward trendline is acting as resistance. Sellers are likely to continue leaning on this level, with a defined risk above it, to keep driving prices to new lows. Buyers will be watching for a break higher to extend the pullback toward the major downward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming catalysts

Today brings the US CPI report. Thursday will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, and Friday wraps up the week with US PPI data. Attention will remain on US-Iran developments.