Oil jumps on reports of possible US strikes against Iran
Oil prices surged amid reports the White House asked the Pentagon for strike options against Iran, raising fears of renewed conflict.
Iran accuses the US of sending secret proposals via intermediaries while publicly taking a tough stance, and says it will not engage.
If these remarks are accurate, they point to no near-term easing of supply, since reopening the Strait of Hormuz is tied to demands the US has given no sign of meeting. That reinforces the war-risk premium in oil markets, notably in prompt Brent spreads. The talk of military "surprises" increases tail risk for Gulf shipping and energy assets. Given the unverified source, traders are likely to respond cautiously at first. A confirmation from Tehran or a denial from Washington could trigger rapid price moves. The alleged back channel cuts the other way too: it signals that diplomacy is not entirely dead, which may cap how aggressively traders push prices higher.
Newswire cut: According to reports, Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf has said Tehran intends to turn down fresh US peace proposals delivered through intermediaries and will hold the Strait of Hormuz shut until seven conditions are satisfied. The comments, which appeared on social media, have not been independently verified.
One-line wrap: Tehran accuses Washington of talking peace quietly behind the scenes while taking a harsh line publicly, and claims it is heeding neither, with the Hormuz closure as the cost of engagement.
Summary:
Iran has alleged that the Trump administration has been privately transmitting new peace proposals via intermediaries while adopting a starkly different public stance, and has stated it will not interact with them. The allegation stems from remarks attributed to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf that spread on social media (not yet in mainstream outlets). The comments could not be independently confirmed.
According to reports, Ghalibaf said US officials make one set of statements in the media while having recently floated proposals via intermediaries. He stated that Tehran considers the newest ideas akin to earlier ones and will not reply to them or to any additional offers.
He also adopted an assertive stance, reportedly stating that the era of delays and one-sided demands is over. He said the Strait of Hormuz will stay shut until Iran's seven conditions are fulfilled, and cautioned that Iran will face the US and Israel with fresh military surprises. The reports did not list the seven conditions.
If these statements are accurate, they indicate a growing chasm between the parties. On September 26, President Donald Trump publicly dismissed an Iranian proposal and instructed his negotiating team that a return to the prior memorandum of understanding was out of the question. Neither Washington nor the intermediaries have publicly verified that fresh proposals were dispatched.
Allegations of a covert channel coexisting with public animosity may be intended for domestic and global audiences as much as for the talks themselves. What matters for markets is the substance: a senior Iranian official is linking the reopening of Hormuz to demands the US has demonstrated no willingness to meet.
Unless one side bends, an early reopening of the strait appears improbable. The next cues to monitor are any official acknowledgment of back-channel communications, or specifics on Iran's conditions.
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