OPEC+ keeps November targets unchanged; core output 5 mn bpd under prewar level

The decision to keep targets unchanged leaves the supply situation unchanged, and it remains tight. Brent crude remains over $100 per barrel, compared with roughly $73 before the conflict started in late February. The decline on Friday after Europe agreed to free up diesel reserves at the U.S.'s request appears to be a brief pause rather than a shift in the trend. Since export disruption due to the war constrains physical barrels, not policy, OPEC+ ceilings have limited short-term influence on prices. Traders are focusing on flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf export figures over quota announcements. The postponement of the capacity review also leaves the supply trajectory from 2027 uncertain. This maintains a risk premium on longer-dated contracts and increases the chance of disputes over quotas once flows return to normal.

Earlier report:

• Every B-1 bomber is heading back to the U.S. from its U.K. base (contrary to expectations)

Although OPEC+ can decide on any production targets, the Iran war—not the quota system—still determines the actual amount of oil pumped.

Summary:

• At a short online meeting on Sunday, the seven core OPEC+ members kept November output targets unchanged, as had been anticipated.
• Due to disruption from the war, Gulf exports have been at 60% to 80% of typical volumes in recent months. Core output in August was approximately 25 million barrels per day, around 5 million bpd below February's prewar figure.
• According to sources, a capacity review important for determining 2027 quotas has been delayed from the end of September to mid-November. Some members have not yet provided the necessary data.
• The consultant is expected to deliver its report in mid-November, which will be in time for a full-group meeting later that month. The core members are scheduled to meet next on November 1.
• Approximately 2 million bpd of production cuts are still in effect, and sources indicate that output adjustments are improbable before 2027.

According to Reuters, OPEC+ decided on Sunday to leave oil production targets unchanged for November. The move was broadly anticipated and does little to alter the situation on the ground: Gulf producers continue to pump well below their quotas due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The decision occurred during a brief online meeting of the seven core members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. Export disruptions related to the conflict have caused Gulf exports to run at 60% to 80% of normal levels in recent months.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that the unchanged targets were in line with expectations. He observed that production remains significantly below quota even as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase, keeping the oil market tight.

According to OPEC data, the seven core members produced about 25 million bpd in August. That figure was over 600,000 bpd higher than July but still approximately 5 million bpd below the prewar levels of February. The group has increased targets for much of 2026 following years of cuts, but most of those increases have only been on paper.

The conflict has also postponed a review essential for setting members' 2027 quotas. OPEC+ commissioned an assessment of each member's maximum sustainable production capacity in late 2025, to be completed by the end of September. Two sources informed Reuters on Friday that the deadline has been moved to mid-November. The war has delayed capacity expansion projects across the Middle East and rendered estimates of future output potential uncertain. The sources said that not all members have submitted the required data.

US consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton is evaluating all members apart from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, which are subject to US sanctions. The firm is now expected to submit its report in mid-November, which would still give ministers time to review the results at a full-group meeting later that month.

The review is politically delicate. Members with lower assessed capacity might be pressured to accept reduced quotas, while those that have expanded could advocate for larger ones. The United Arab Emirates, which requested a higher quota to reflect its growing capacity, exited the alliance in May. Iraq has also pushed for a larger allocation.

Around 2 million bpd of cuts remain in effect across most members, and sources have indicated that output changes are improbable before 2027. The seven core members are scheduled to meet next on November 1.