JPMorgan Outlines Three Possible Bitcoin Prices by 2036

According to a new projection from JPMorgan Asset Management, Bitcoin might beat US stocks and gold in the coming decade.

JPMorgan sees Bitcoin delivering 10% annual returns in its base case, which exceeds the 7.5% expected from large-cap US equities and 5.5% from gold.

If those returns compound annually, a $10,000 Bitcoin investment would become about $26,000 after ten years.

Still, JPMorgan regards a ten-year Bitcoin forecast as premature and keeps BTC out of its core risk models.

JPMorgan's 10-Year Bitcoin Price Outlook

The numbers are from the 2027 edition of JPMorgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA). This is the first time the annual report has included a range for Bitcoin returns.

The base case begins at a spot price of $83,000 as of September 30. The bull case projects 16.6% annually. The bear case, also part of the range, shows -11.2% a year.

Using BeInCrypto's calculations, compounding from $83,000, those rates give these Bitcoin prices by 2036:

• Base case (10% annually): about $215,000.
• Bull case (16.6% annually): about $386,000.
• Bear case (-11.2% annually): about $25,000.

“BTC mostly trades like a high beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth, but it is sometimes treated as digital gold. Unstable correlations with other assets present a modeling hurdle. A further challenge is forecasting an asset whose fundamentals are not cash flows and whose economics may be as much about adoption, regulation and liquidity as technology,” the analysts wrote.

JPMorgan points to those correlations and high volatility as reasons for placing BTC in a separate illustrative table. That table shows Bitcoin's historical volatility at 55%, about three times that of stocks and gold.

Nevertheless, the report references JPMorgan Private Bank's 2026 Global Family Office Report, in which roughly 10% of surveyed clients reported holding crypto assets.

Additionally, 17% of respondents intended to give priority to crypto and other digital assets.

Bitcoin's Math Partly Tied to Gold Portfolios

The biggest framework, with a 65% weighting, compares Bitcoin's supply growth to the US dollar and global money supply. It forecasts 10.7% annually in its base case.

A second framework, at 30% weight, sees Bitcoin as a complement to gold. Its base case expects investors to shift some gold exposure to BTC, also at 10.7%.

The bull case for that framework assumes Bitcoin becomes part of a central bank's reserves, projecting 17.3% annually, the highest in the table. The third framework, network adoption, with a 5% weight, projects -3.2% in its base case.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan maintained a 5.5% return for gold and continues to call it a key hedge. The report notes that reserve managers are increasing holdings of gold and other hard assets. In September, China's central bank added more gold than in any month since 2023.

JPMorgan finds only a 0.10 correlation between the two assets. For gold holders, the rotation scenario suggests some funds shifting to BTC over the decade.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan responded to the inclusion on X.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade. pic.twitter.com/TuOuH51l3c

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 20, 2026

His statement is true within the public market table. However, small-cap private equity at 10.6% and US value-added real estate at 10.2% are ranked above BTC.

JPMorgan states that Bitcoin's role in portfolios could increase if volatility declines and correlations become more stable. Until then, it recommends stress-testing any BTC allocation against both bull and bear scenarios.